Closing spread
BUF -2
Total
45
Model margin
+0.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play+0.025
- 44.0%Success rate40.7%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.039
- 8.7%Explosive rate10.5%
- -0.32CPOE+2.97
- 41.0%Third-down rate38.1%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate65.3%
- 2.25Points / drive1.83
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 38/59 | 466 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 13 | 113 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 6 | 9 | 98 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 11 | 19 | 97 | 2 |
| Aaron Dobson | 7 | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Michael Williams | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 23/30 | 242 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 15 | 89 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 5 | 43 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Karlos Williams | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 3 | 3 | 60 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 6 | 8 | 60 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Karlos Williams | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.41