Closing spread
BUF -2
Total
45
Model margin
+0.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- OutRyan WendellCIllness· DNP
- DoubtfulDominique EasleyDTHip· Limited
- ProbableTavon WilsonSQuadricep· Full
- ProbableTravaris CadetRBHamstring· Full
- ProbableTrey FlowersDEKnee· Full
Bills
- OutMarquise GoodwinWRRibs· DNP
- OutTony StewardLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableLeSean McCoyRBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableCorey GrahamCBConcussion· Full
- ProbablePercy HarvinWRHip· Full
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play+0.025
- 44.0%Success rate40.7%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.039
- 8.7%Explosive rate10.5%
- -0.32CPOE+2.97
- 41.0%Third-down rate38.1%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate65.3%
- 2.25Points / drive1.83
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 10:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 8:26 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 6:32 | 5 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q1 4:02 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NE | Q1 1:29 | 2 | 13 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| BUF | Q1 0:58 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| NE | Q2 14:50 | 5 | 30 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| BUF | Q2 13:14 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 21–7 |
| NE | Q2 11:01 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 21–7 |
| BUF | Q2 10:27 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–7 |
| NE | Q2 9:05 | 7 | 36 | Turnover on downs | 21–7 |
| BUF | Q2 6:38 | 4 | 14 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| NE | Q2 5:13 | 10 | 57 | Field goal | 24–13 |
| BUF | Q2 2:18 | 9 | 34 | Turnover | 24–13 |
| NE | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–13 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 97 | Field goal | 27–13 |
| BUF | Q3 10:02 | 8 | 44 | Punt | 27–13 |
| NE | Q3 6:36 | 10 | 78 | Touchdown | 34–13 |
| BUF | Q3 3:24 | 3 | -16 | Punt | 34–13 |
| NE | Q3 1:27 | 5 | 23 | Field goal | 37–13 |
| BUF | Q3 0:28 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 37–19 |
| NE | Q4 11:42 | 8 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 37–19 |
| BUF | Q4 8:10 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 37–25 |
| NE | Q4 5:27 | 2 | -7 | Turnover | 37–25 |
| BUF | Q4 4:31 | 2 | 50 | Touchdown | 37–32 |
| NE | Q4 4:16 | 7 | 50 | Field goal | 40–32 |
| BUF | Q4 1:15 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 40–32 |
| NE | Q4 1:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 40–32 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 38/59 | 466 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 13 | 113 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 6 | 9 | 98 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 11 | 19 | 97 | 2 |
| Aaron Dobson | 7 | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Michael Williams | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 23/30 | 242 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 15 | 89 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 5 | 43 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Karlos Williams | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 3 | 3 | 60 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 6 | 8 | 60 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Karlos Williams | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.41