Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.032
- 40.7%Success rate40.5%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.111
- 10.5%Explosive rate9.5%
- +2.97CPOE+1.20
- 38.1%Third-down rate31.0%
- 65.3%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.83Points / drive1.42
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 21/29 | 277 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlos Williams | 12 | 110 | 9.2 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 11 | 16 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 5 | 7 | 82 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 7 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 3 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 26/49 | 297 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Gray | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rishard Matthews | 6 | 10 | 113 | 2 |
| Jarvis Landry | 8 | 13 | 67 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 3 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 3 | 8 | 16 | 0 |
| Jake Stoneburner | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.11