2015 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

41·14

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

MIA -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.032
  • 40.7%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.008
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.111
  • 10.5%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +2.97CPOE+1.20
  • 38.1%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 65.3%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.42
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
BUFQ1 14:06577Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 11:49719Punt7–0
BUFQ1 9:43975Touchdown14–0
MIAQ1 6:03515Punt14–0
BUFQ1 3:13313Punt14–0
MIAQ1 1:4810Turnover14–0
BUFQ1 1:40857Field goal17–0
MIAQ2 11:40724Punt17–0
BUFQ2 7:01832Punt17–0
MIAQ2 2:59639Opp touchdown24–0
MIAQ2 1:44523Turnover24–0
BUFQ2 0:45316Field goal27–0
MIAQ2 0:0300End of half27–0
BUFQ3 15:001143Missed field goal27–0
MIAQ3 8:53656Touchdown27–8
BUFQ3 5:391270Touchdown34–8
MIAQ4 14:531672Turnover on downs34–8
BUFQ4 10:1233Punt34–8
MIAQ4 8:47453Touchdown34–14
BUFQ4 7:56244Touchdown41–14
MIAQ4 6:461486Turnover on downs41–14
BUFQ4 0:1900End of half41–14

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor21/2927730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Karlos Williams121109.21
Percy Harvin2168.00
LeSean McCoy11161.50
Tyrod Taylor3124.00
Anthony Dixon5-1-0.20
EJ Manuel1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay57821
Percy Harvin78660
Chris Hogan34421
Sammy Watkins12390
Robert Woods45380
LeSean McCoy13101

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill26/4929723

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonas Gray9495.40
Lamar Miller7385.40
Damien Williams2178.50
Ryan Tannehill1-1-1.00
Jarvis Landry1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rishard Matthews6101132
Jarvis Landry813670
DeVante Parker37460
Lamar Miller33270
Jordan Cameron38160
Jake Stoneburner11130
Greg Jennings13100
Damien Williams1350
Kenny Stills0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.11