Closing spread
BAL -6
Total
43
Model margin
+3.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.081
- 41.1%Success rate42.4%
- -0.025EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.170
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.1%
- -0.75CPOE-0.66
- 41.6%Third-down rate37.0%
- 41.3%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
- 1.32Points / drive1.48
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 36/51 | 457 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Barnidge | 8 | 10 | 139 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 6 | 12 | 83 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 4 | 5 | 75 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 7 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 2 | 38 | 1 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 19/35 | 210 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 21 | 121 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Javorius Allen | 8 | 58 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamar Aiken | 4 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Givens | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.14