2015 · Week 5 · Division

Final / OT

Browns

Cleveland

QB Josh McCown

33·30

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 65°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

BAL -6

Total

43

Model margin

+3.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • -0.074EPA / play-0.081
  • 41.1%Success rate42.4%
  • -0.025EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.179EPA / rush-0.170
  • 7.0%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -0.75CPOE-0.66
  • 41.6%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 41.3%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
  • 1.32Points / drive1.48
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
BALQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:2331Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:44861Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 8:30955Field goal3–7
BALQ1 3:11673Touchdown3–14
CLEQ1 0:1640Punt3–14
BALQ2 14:1834Punt3–14
CLEQ2 12:46722Punt3–14
BALQ2 9:02413Punt3–14
CLEQ2 6:47536Field goal6–14
BALQ2 4:05721Missed field goal6–14
CLEQ2 1:03645Field goal9–14
CLEQ3 15:00516Punt9–14
BALQ3 12:131091Touchdown9–21
CLEQ3 7:471475Touchdown16–21
BALQ3 1:0652Punt16–21
CLEQ4 14:05479Touchdown22–21
BALQ4 12:2339Punt22–21
CLEQ4 10:5854Punt22–21
BALQ4 8:46743Touchdown22–27
CLEQ4 5:56975Touchdown30–27
BALQ4 3:031060Field goal30–30
CLEQ4 0:25446End of half30–30
BALOT30Punt30–30
CLEOT1151Field goal33–30

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown36/5145720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell13493.80
Duke Johnson9222.40
Josh McCown3124.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gary Barnidge8101391
Travis Benjamin612830
Taylor Gabriel45750
Duke Johnson68550
Andrew Hawkins79490
Isaiah Crowell22381
Jim Dray1170
Rob Housler1160
Brian Hartline1350

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco19/3521010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett211215.81
Javorius Allen8587.30
Joe Flacco221.02

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kamar Aiken49780
Justin Forsett45490
Nick Boyle33270
Jeremy Ross22240
Darren Waller1210
Chris Givens0200
Marlon Brown1400
Maxx Williams1100
Javorius Allen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.14