Closing spread
HOU -4.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.083EPA / play-0.055
- 40.1%Success rate40.4%
- -0.023EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.206EPA / rush-0.172
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.4%
- -4.10CPOE-4.17
- 40.5%Third-down rate39.6%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.47Points / drive1.50
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 18/29 | 213 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 22 | 98 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Zurlon Tipton | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Josh Robinson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 9 | 88 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 6 | 7 | 77 | 2 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Robinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Zurlon Tipton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 24/31 | 312 | 2 | 1 |
| Ryan Mallett | 7/10 | 50 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 19 | 41 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 11 | 14 | 169 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 9 | 10 | 77 | 0 |
| Jaelen Strong | 2 | 2 | 53 | 2 |
| Keith Mumphery | 4 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chandler Worthy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.4%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.01