2015 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Hasselbeck

27·20

Texans

Houston

QB Ryan Mallett

NRG Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -4.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • -0.083EPA / play-0.055
  • 40.1%Success rate40.4%
  • -0.023EPA / dropback+0.022
  • -0.206EPA / rush-0.172
  • 7.0%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -4.10CPOE-4.17
  • 40.5%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.50
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
HOUQ1 15:001461Turnover0–0
INDQ1 8:33426Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 6:28610Punt3–0
INDQ1 3:22645Touchdown10–0
HOUQ1 1:22520Punt10–0
INDQ2 13:381361Field goal13–0
HOUQ2 7:371362Field goal13–3
INDQ2 2:08518Punt13–3
HOUQ2 1:161190Touchdown13–10
INDQ3 15:00456Touchdown20–10
HOUQ3 13:02411Punt20–10
INDQ3 10:4336Punt20–10
HOUQ3 9:081090Touchdown20–17
INDQ3 4:031854Touchdown27–17
HOUQ4 10:28859Field goal27–20
INDQ4 6:07613Punt27–20
HOUQ4 3:25541Turnover27–20
INDQ4 1:45347End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck18/2921320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore22984.51
Zurlon Tipton294.50
Josh Robinson362.00
Matt Hasselbeck3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton59880
Andre Johnson67772
Dwayne Allen11210
Coby Fleener2390
Phillip Dorsett1290
Josh Robinson1160
Donte Moncrief1330
Jack Doyle1200
Zurlon Tipton0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer24/3131221
Ryan Mallett7/105001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster19412.20
Alfred Blue6223.70
Brian Hoyer11414.00
Chris Polk155.00
Ryan Mallett100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins11141690
Arian Foster910770
Jaelen Strong22532
Keith Mumphery48230
Chris Polk23170
Alfred Blue11110
Garrett Graham1180
C.J. Fiedorowicz1140
Chandler Worthy0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.4%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.57
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.01