2015 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

18·16

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

GB -10.5

Total

50

Model margin

+1.5est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.002
  • 44.9%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.045EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.160EPA / rush-0.134
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -0.09CPOE-0.77
  • 38.4%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
  • 1.90Points / drive1.72
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
GBQ1 15:001157Field goal0–3
DETQ1 10:063-1Punt0–3
GBQ1 8:2032Punt0–3
DETQ1 7:1532Punt0–3
GBQ1 6:24525Punt0–3
DETQ1 3:55516Punt0–3
GBQ1 1:4532Punt0–3
DETQ2 14:4838Punt0–3
GBQ2 13:271146Punt0–3
DETQ2 8:161355Punt0–3
GBQ2 1:3037Punt0–3
DETQ2 0:45422Field goal3–3
GBQ2 0:1200End of half3–3
DETQ3 15:0031Touchdown9–3
GBQ3 13:3332Punt9–3
DETQ3 12:4833Punt9–3
GBQ3 11:20941Punt9–3
DETQ3 8:101270Turnover9–3
GBQ3 1:2331Punt9–3
DETQ4 14:49422Field goal12–3
GBQ4 13:10629Punt12–3
DETQ4 11:5439Punt12–3
GBQ4 10:001485Touchdown12–10
DETQ4 5:55980Touchdown18–10
GBQ4 1:57961Touchdown18–16
DETQ4 0:3200Missed field goal18–16
GBQ4 0:31415Missed field goal18–16

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3824221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell14171.20
Ameer Abdullah5153.00
Golden Tate11111.00
Matthew Stafford210.50
Theo Riddick310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson69810
Golden Tate44520
Lance Moore36291
Eric Ebron48280
Theo Riddick33250
Joique Bell23180
Ameer Abdullah1170
Brandon Pettigrew1421

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers35/6133320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks15422.80
Aaron Rodgers284.00
Randall Cobb1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams1021790
Justin Perillo56581
Jared Abbrederis47570
James Starks67540
Randall Cobb510530
Richard Rodgers55321
James Jones0200
Alonzo Harris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.57.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.49