Closing spread
GB -10.5
Total
50
Model margin
+1.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.002
- 44.9%Success rate42.3%
- +0.045EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.160EPA / rush-0.134
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.1%
- -0.09CPOE-0.77
- 38.4%Third-down rate33.6%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 1.90Points / drive1.72
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/38 | 242 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 14 | 17 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 3 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 35/61 | 333 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 15 | 42 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 10 | 21 | 79 | 0 |
| Justin Perillo | 5 | 6 | 58 | 1 |
| Jared Abbrederis | 4 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| James Starks | 6 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 5 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| James Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alonzo Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.49