2015 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

13·20

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 29°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

NE perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.089
  • 40.7%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.174
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.075
  • 10.5%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +2.97CPOE-0.32
  • 38.1%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 65.3%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.83Points / drive2.25
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NE
BUFQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:251245Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 7:29940Punt0–3
NEQ1 2:04428Punt0–3
BUFQ1 0:031051Field goal3–3
NEQ2 9:2738Punt3–3
BUFQ2 8:0733Punt3–3
NEQ2 6:28827Punt3–3
BUFQ2 3:41852Missed field goal3–3
NEQ2 0:46662Touchdown3–10
BUFQ2 0:1300End of half3–10
NEQ3 15:00624Missed field goal3–10
BUFQ3 12:35556Touchdown10–10
NEQ3 10:2935Punt10–10
BUFQ3 9:3031Punt10–10
NEQ3 7:59664Touchdown10–17
BUFQ3 5:553-1Punt10–17
NEQ3 4:45412Punt10–17
NEQ3 2:37514Field goal10–20
BUFQ3 0:4736Punt10–20
NEQ4 14:16227Turnover10–20
BUFQ4 13:22615Punt10–20
NEQ4 10:04532Punt10–20
BUFQ4 7:35860Field goal13–20
NEQ4 3:3038Punt13–20
BUFQ4 1:51932End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor20/3623300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy20824.11
Karlos Williams6111.80
Tyrod Taylor410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Hogan67950
Robert Woods49440
LeSean McCoy610410
Sammy Watkins36390
Charles Clay13140
Chris Gragg0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady20/3927711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount16563.50
Brandon Bolden4153.80
James White2147.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola9121170
Brandon LaFell48660
Rob Gronkowski27370
James White23321
Aaron Dobson12170
LeGarrette Blount1250
Scott Chandler1230
Brandon Bolden0100
Chris Harper0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

4.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.0%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+4.09