Closing spread
NE -7
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.089
- 40.7%Success rate44.0%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.075
- 10.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- +2.97CPOE-0.32
- 38.1%Third-down rate41.0%
- 65.3%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.83Points / drive2.25
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 20/36 | 233 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 20 | 82 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Karlos Williams | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hogan | 6 | 7 | 95 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 10 | 41 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Gragg | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/39 | 277 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 9 | 12 | 117 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Aaron Dobson | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Harper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.09