2015 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Matt Schaub

33·27

Browns

Cleveland

QB Josh McCown

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CLE -6

Total

41

Model margin

+2.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • -0.081EPA / play-0.074
  • 42.4%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback-0.025
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.179
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -0.66CPOE-0.75
  • 37.0%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 49.4%Red-zone TD rate41.3%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.32
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
BALQ1 15:00520Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:29615Opp touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 9:54518Punt7–0
BALQ1 7:33639Field goal10–0
CLEQ1 4:221377Field goal10–3
BALQ2 11:27360Touchdown17–3
CLEQ2 9:581064Touchdown17–10
BALQ2 4:3636Punt17–10
CLEQ2 2:38858Field goal17–13
BALQ2 0:0300End of half17–13
CLEQ3 15:0038Punt17–13
BALQ3 13:1833Opp touchdown17–20
BALQ3 12:161280Touchdown24–20
CLEQ3 5:30921Punt24–20
BALQ3 2:121797Field goal27–20
CLEQ4 9:0531Punt27–20
BALQ4 8:13522Punt27–20
CLEQ4 4:20671Touchdown27–27
BALQ4 1:4739Punt27–27
CLEQ4 1:233-8Punt27–27
BALQ4 0:5610Turnover27–27
CLEQ4 0:50313Opp touchdown33–27

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub20/3423222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javorius Allen12554.60
Terrance West7375.30
Matt Schaub3103.30
Chris Givens122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kamar Aiken610801
Chris Givens13480
Javorius Allen45291
Jeremy Butler34270
Crockett Gillmore34200
Nick Boyle13100
Daniel Brown0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown21/3821210
Austin Davis7/107710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duke Johnson7273.90
Josh McCown2126.00
Travis Benjamin11010.00
Austin Davis177.00
Isaiah Crowell771.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gary Barnidge711910
Travis Benjamin613901
Brian Hartline812740
Duke Johnson56230
Marlon Moore12101
Malcolm Johnson1110
Dwayne Bowe0100
Jim Dray0100
E.J. Bibbs0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.19
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.83