Closing spread
CLE -6
Total
41
Model margin
+2.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play-0.074
- 42.4%Success rate41.1%
- -0.034EPA / dropback-0.025
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.179
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.0%
- -0.66CPOE-0.75
- 37.0%Third-down rate41.6%
- 49.4%Red-zone TD rate41.3%
- 1.48Points / drive1.32
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 20/34 | 232 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javorius Allen | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chris Givens | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamar Aiken | 6 | 10 | 80 | 1 |
| Chris Givens | 1 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 4 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Jeremy Butler | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 21/38 | 212 | 1 | 0 |
| Austin Davis | 7/10 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Austin Davis | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Barnidge | 7 | 11 | 91 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 6 | 13 | 90 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 8 | 12 | 74 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| E.J. Bibbs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.19
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.83