Closing spread
KC -4.5
Total
41
Model margin
+5.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.033
- 40.7%Success rate44.0%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.024
- 10.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- +2.97CPOE+0.03
- 38.1%Third-down rate36.6%
- 65.3%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.83Points / drive1.92
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 21/38 | 291 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 19 | 70 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Karlos Williams | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 6 | 10 | 158 | 2 |
| Chris Hogan | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Charles Clay | 5 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 9 | 25 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/30 | 255 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 19 | 114 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 9 | 11 | 160 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 7 | 69 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.69
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.26