2015 · Week 12

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

22·30

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

KC -4.5

Total

41

Model margin

+5.3est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.033
  • 40.7%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.067
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.024
  • 10.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +2.97CPOE+0.03
  • 38.1%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 65.3%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.92
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 12–11 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9KC @ BUF21–28BUF
2024 · playoffsBUF @ KC29–32KC
2024 · W11KC @ BUF21–30BUF
2023 · playoffsKC @ BUF27–24KC
2023 · W14BUF @ KC20–17BUF
2022 · W6BUF @ KC24–20BUF
2021 · playoffsBUF @ KC36–42KC
2021 · W5BUF @ KC38–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–KC
BUFQ1 15:00668Field goal3–0
KCQ1 11:53412Punt3–0
BUFQ1 10:07635Turnover3–0
KCQ1 7:2238Punt3–0
BUFQ1 5:191080Touchdown10–0
KCQ1 1:0439Punt10–0
BUFQ2 14:451128Punt10–0
KCQ2 10:07680Touchdown10–7
BUFQ2 6:571085Touchdown16–7
KCQ2 2:29355Touchdown16–14
BUFQ2 1:4830Punt16–14
KCQ2 1:20835Missed field goal16–14
KCQ3 15:00774Touchdown16–21
BUFQ3 11:1549Turnover16–21
KCQ3 9:4233Field goal16–24
BUFQ3 8:07960Touchdown22–24
KCQ3 3:11959Field goal22–27
BUFQ4 13:00631Punt22–27
KCQ4 10:011268Field goal22–30
BUFQ4 3:30619Turnover on downs22–30
KCQ4 2:07311End of half22–30

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor21/3829130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy19703.70
Tyrod Taylor5469.20
Anthony Dixon284.00
Karlos Williams252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins6101582
Chris Hogan35340
LeSean McCoy35311
Charles Clay58310
Robert Woods39250

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith19/3025520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Spencer Ware191146.01
Alex Smith6355.80
Albert Wilson188.00
Knile Davis111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin9111601
Travis Kelce47691
Albert Wilson33250
Spencer Ware3310
Jason Avant0200
Chris Conley0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.26