Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.002EPA / play-0.019
- 42.3%Success rate44.9%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.045
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.160
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.6%
- -0.77CPOE-0.09
- 33.6%Third-down rate38.4%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.72Points / drive1.90
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/36 | 273 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 1 |
| John Crockett | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| James Starks | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Rodgers | 8 | 8 | 146 | 1 |
| James Starks | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 7 | 21 | 1 |
| James Jones | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jared Abbrederis | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 23/35 | 220 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 13 | 67 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 8 | 5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 8 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 3 | 8 | 44 | 1 |
| T.J. Jones | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Corey Fuller | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.93