2015 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

27·23

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

GB -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

+2.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.002EPA / play-0.019
  • 42.3%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.045
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.160
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -0.77CPOE-0.09
  • 33.6%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.90
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
GBQ1 15:00514Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:52640Field goal0–3
GBQ1 8:48422Punt0–3
DETQ1 6:43876Touchdown0–10
GBQ1 1:5022Turnover0–16
DETQ1 1:08117Touchdown0–17
GBQ1 1:02928Missed field goal0–17
DETQ2 12:1534Punt0–17
GBQ2 11:183-6Punt0–17
DETQ2 9:163-5Punt0–17
GBQ2 6:51910Punt0–17
DETQ2 2:3530Punt0–17
GBQ2 2:1139Punt0–17
DETQ2 1:37419Punt0–17
GBQ2 0:1300End of half0–17
DETQ3 15:001071Field goal0–20
GBQ3 8:54770Touchdown7–20
DETQ3 5:441-8Turnover7–20
GBQ3 5:37312Touchdown14–20
DETQ3 4:06624Punt14–20
GBQ3 0:3850Punt14–20
DETQ4 13:351439Field goal14–23
GBQ4 7:061189Touchdown21–23
DETQ4 3:04629Punt21–23
GBQ4 0:23461Touchdown27–23

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/3627321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Rodgers4276.81
John Crockett5224.40
James Starks9151.70
Eddie Lacy540.80
Randall Cobb1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Richard Rodgers881461
James Starks57450
Randall Cobb45290
Davante Adams47211
James Jones13190
Jared Abbrederis13160
Jeff Janis0100
Eddie Lacy11-30

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford23/3522020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah13675.20
Matthew Stafford22211.00
Joique Bell850.60
Theo Riddick144.00
Golden Tate133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate810630
Calvin Johnson38441
T.J. Jones23370
Theo Riddick56270
Joique Bell22250
Corey Fuller12150
Eric Ebron2291
Ameer Abdullah0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.93