2015 · Week 14

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

27·6

Texans

Houston

QB Brian Hoyer

NRG Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

NE -4

Total

46

Model margin

+3.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapTexans
  • +0.089EPA / play-0.055
  • 44.0%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback+0.022
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.172
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -0.32CPOE-4.17
  • 41.0%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.50
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–4 since 1999

Meetings average 51.1 points. HOU are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–28NE
2024 · W6HOU @ NE41–21HOU
2021 · W5NE @ HOU25–22NE
2020 · W11NE @ HOU20–27HOU
2019 · W13NE @ HOU22–28HOU
2018 · W1HOU @ NE20–27NE
2017 · W3HOU @ NE33–36NE
2016 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–34NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–HOU
HOUQ1 15:003-6Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:0130Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:2337Punt0–0
NEQ1 9:30557Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 7:22975Field goal7–3
NEQ1 2:381057Field goal10–3
HOUQ2 12:13653Field goal10–6
NEQ2 9:26945Punt10–6
HOUQ2 4:1538Punt10–6
NEQ2 2:45841Touchdown17–6
HOUQ2 0:1400End of half17–6
NEQ3 15:00643Field goal20–6
HOUQ3 11:4859Punt20–6
HOUQ3 10:3246Turnover on downs20–6
NEQ3 8:5637Punt20–6
HOUQ3 7:2566Punt20–6
NEQ3 4:463-3Punt20–6
HOUQ3 2:373-4Punt20–6
NEQ3 0:5946Punt20–6
HOUQ4 13:371-11Turnover20–6
NEQ4 13:2537Touchdown27–6
HOUQ4 12:04746Turnover on downs27–6
NEQ4 9:15743Punt27–6
HOUQ4 4:4531Punt27–6
NEQ4 3:16313End of half27–6

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady22/3022620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount10535.30
Brandon Bolden16513.20
Tom Brady4102.50
James White122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski44871
Danny Amendola68460
James White46380
Brandon LaFell58320
Keshawn Martin34231

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer11/2215500
T.J. Yates1/2400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Grimes7537.60
Chris Polk11343.10
Akeem Hunt111.00
Cecil Shorts200.00
Brian Hoyer1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins36520
Nate Washington14490
Ryan Griffin16200
Chris Polk22140
Cecil Shorts2390
Jonathan Grimes2290
Jaelen Strong1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -43.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.13