Closing spread
NE -4
Total
46
Model margin
+3.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play-0.055
- 44.0%Success rate40.4%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.172
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- -0.32CPOE-4.17
- 41.0%Third-down rate39.6%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 2.25Points / drive1.50
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–4 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. HOU are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/30 | 226 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 16 | 51 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 4 | 87 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 6 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 5 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 11/22 | 155 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 1/2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Grimes | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jaelen Strong | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.13