Closing spread
IND -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
-1.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.083
- 40.4%Success rate40.1%
- +0.022EPA / dropback-0.023
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.206
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.0%
- -4.17CPOE-4.10
- 39.6%Third-down rate40.5%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.50Points / drive1.47
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 11/18 | 105 | 1 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 6/10 | 68 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 20 | 107 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8 | 11 | 94 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Jaelen Strong | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/30 | 147 | 1 | 1 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 1/2 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 44 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Zurlon Tipton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte Moncrief | 5 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| Andre Johnson | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Griff Whalen | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.59
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.19