Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
41
Model margin
+0.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.025
- 41.9%Success rate40.7%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.039
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.5%
- -1.27CPOE+2.97
- 40.9%Third-down rate38.1%
- 70.2%Red-zone TD rate65.3%
- 1.90Points / drive1.83
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 16/37 | 181 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 6 | 81 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 8 | 16 | 126 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 5 | 9 | 50 | 1 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 18/28 | 182 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Mike Gillislee | 24 | 28 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Karlos Williams | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Anthony Dixon | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 11 | 15 | 136 | 0 |
| Greg Salas | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Karlos Williams | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.38