2015 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

17·22

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 35°F · wind 21mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

41

Model margin

+0.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBills
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.025
  • 41.9%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.039
  • 9.3%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -1.27CPOE+2.97
  • 40.9%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 70.2%Red-zone TD rate65.3%
  • 1.90Points / drive1.83
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BUF
NYJQ1 15:0046Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:2430Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:22515Punt0–0
BUFQ1 9:3030Punt0–0
NYJQ1 7:543-3Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:02325Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 5:4331Punt0–7
BUFQ1 4:191359Touchdown0–13
NYJQ2 12:58458Missed field goal0–13
BUFQ2 12:053-1Punt0–13
NYJQ2 11:05360Touchdown7–13
BUFQ2 9:391470Field goal7–16
NYJQ2 0:2317End of half7–16
BUFQ3 15:003-2Turnover7–16
NYJQ3 14:1032Field goal10–16
BUFQ3 13:211476Field goal10–19
NYJQ3 5:021177Touchdown17–19
BUFQ3 1:1038Punt17–19
NYJQ4 14:521043Turnover17–19
BUFQ4 10:431256Field goal17–22
NYJQ4 3:49725Turnover17–22
BUFQ4 1:5135Punt17–22
NYJQ4 0:4439Turnover17–22
BUFQ4 0:1100End of half17–22

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick16/3718123

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory68113.50
Stevan Ridley9293.20
Ryan Fitzpatrick2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall8161261
Eric Decker59501
Quincy Enunwa1450
Kellen Davis0100
Stevan Ridley2200
Kenbrell Thompkins0400

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor18/2818200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrod Taylor10515.11
Mike Gillislee24281.20
Karlos Williams6244.01
Anthony Dixon263.00
Chris Hogan144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins11151360
Greg Salas35410
Karlos Williams3330
Chris Hogan1320
Mike Gillislee0100
Nick O'Leary0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.6%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.38