2016 · Week 1 · Division
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play+0.196
- 43.9%Success rate49.5%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.323
- -0.208EPA / rush+0.001
- 6.6%Explosive rate11.2%
- +1.81CPOE+6.59
- 44.2%Third-down rate43.7%
- 62.7%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.74Points / drive2.93
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 23/32 | 281 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 18 | 62 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 5 | 7 | 99 | 1 |
| Doug Martin | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 30 | 1 |
| Vincent Jackson | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 27/39 | 334 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 5 | 6 | 95 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5 | 8 | 80 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 4 | 8 | 66 | 1 |
| Jacob Tamme | 6 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.42
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.16