2016 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

31·24

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.005EPA / play+0.196
  • 43.9%Success rate49.5%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.323
  • -0.208EPA / rush+0.001
  • 6.6%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +1.81CPOE+6.59
  • 44.2%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 62.7%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.74Points / drive2.93
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. ATL are 21-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:54712Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 9:52459Field goal3–3
TBQ1 7:0837Punt3–3
ATLQ1 5:3436Punt3–3
TBQ1 4:1835Turnover3–3
ATLQ1 2:31422Touchdown3–10
TBQ1 0:111070Touchdown10–10
ATLQ2 10:25631Punt10–10
TBQ2 6:5439Punt10–10
ATLQ2 4:59650Field goal10–13
TBQ2 1:451075Touchdown17–13
ATLQ2 0:1400End of half17–13
TBQ3 15:00475Touchdown24–13
ATLQ3 12:54729Punt24–13
TBQ3 8:28877Touchdown31–13
ATLQ3 5:12971Touchdown31–21
TBQ3 1:3538Punt31–21
ATLQ4 14:52630Punt31–21
TBQ4 11:3334Punt31–21
ATLQ4 9:491049Field goal31–24
TBQ4 4:55833Punt31–24
ATLQ4 1:52519Turnover on downs31–24
TBQ4 1:1000End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston23/3228141

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin18623.40
Russell Shepard199.00
Charles Sims492.30
Adam Humphries177.00
Jameis Winston430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans57991
Doug Martin55340
Adam Humphries35340
Charles Sims33321
Cameron Brate33300
Austin Seferian-Jenkins11301
Vincent Jackson27180
Brandon Myers1141

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan27/3933420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman8222.80
Devonta Freeman11201.80
Matt Ryan3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tevin Coleman56950
Mohamed Sanu58801
Julio Jones48661
Jacob Tamme68510
Devonta Freeman44200
Austin Hooper11140
Patrick DiMarco1180
Justin Hardy1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.2%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.16