Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.128
- 42.2%Success rate44.3%
- +0.062EPA / dropback+0.276
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.077
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- +4.52CPOE+2.98
- 37.0%Third-down rate47.3%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.80Points / drive2.47
- 2.2%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 32/45 | 387 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 10 | 13 | 135 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 8 | 13 | 106 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 5 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Jay Ajayi | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 18/26 | 232 | 3 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 6/9 | 92 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 29 | 123 | 4.2 | 1 |
| James White | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| D.J. Foster | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martellus Bennett | 5 | 6 | 114 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 7 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 4 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 4 | 4 | 48 | 2 |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| D.J. Foster | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Matthew Slater | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.68
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-3.16
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.26