2016 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

24·31

Patriots

New England

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 79°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NE -5.5

Total

42

Model margin

+2.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.004EPA / play+0.128
  • 42.2%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback+0.276
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.077
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +4.52CPOE+2.98
  • 37.0%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.80Points / drive2.47
  • 2.2%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NE
NEQ1 15:00875Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 10:5343Punt0–7
NEQ1 9:32775Touchdown0–14
MIAQ1 6:2239Punt0–14
NEQ1 4:311386Touchdown0–21
MIAQ2 13:1035Punt0–21
NEQ2 11:3336Punt0–21
MIAQ2 10:02425Punt0–21
NEQ2 8:09620Turnover0–21
MIAQ2 6:0224Turnover0–21
NEQ2 5:49821Field goal0–24
MIAQ2 2:48429Turnover0–24
NEQ2 1:4935Punt0–24
MIAQ2 0:58872Field goal3–24
MIAQ3 15:00751Turnover3–24
NEQ3 11:35669Touchdown3–31
MIAQ3 8:44775Touchdown10–31
NEQ3 5:45616Punt10–31
MIAQ3 2:04668Touchdown17–31
NEQ4 14:51737Punt17–31
MIAQ4 10:49974Touchdown24–31
NEQ4 6:061254Missed field goal24–31
MIAQ4 1:04642Turnover24–31
NEQ4 0:0200End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill32/4538722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Tannehill6355.80
Jay Ajayi5142.80
Kenyan Drake2126.01
Arian Foster393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry10131350
DeVante Parker8131060
Jordan Cameron57491
Kenny Stills24391
Jay Ajayi44310
Dion Sims11210
Kenyan Drake2260

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo18/2623230
Jacoby Brissett6/99200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount291234.21
James White4194.80
Jacoby Brissett4123.00
D.J. Foster177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Martellus Bennett561141
Julian Edelman710760
Chris Hogan46590
Danny Amendola44482
Malcolm Mitchell12150
James White24100
D.J. Foster1220
Matthew Slater0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.68
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.16
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.26