Closing spread
NO -2.5
Total
54
Model margin
-1.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.196EPA / play+0.100
- 49.5%Success rate48.2%
- +0.323EPA / dropback+0.161
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.012
- 11.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- +6.59CPOE+4.38
- 43.7%Third-down rate49.0%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 2.93Points / drive2.39
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 20/30 | 240 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 14 | 152 | 10.9 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 3 |
| Matt Ryan | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 5 | 55 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 36/54 | 376 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 15 | 77 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Fleener | 7 | 11 | 109 | 1 |
| Brandon Coleman | 7 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 7 | 11 | 71 | 1 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 6 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 6 | 30 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 8 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.97