2016 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

45·32

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -2.5

Total

54

Model margin

-1.0est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • +0.196EPA / play+0.100
  • 49.5%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.323EPA / dropback+0.161
  • +0.001EPA / rush-0.012
  • 11.2%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +6.59CPOE+4.38
  • 43.7%Third-down rate49.0%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 2.93Points / drive2.39
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
NOQ1 15:001271Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 8:2532Punt0–7
ATLQ1 6:13311Touchdown7–7
NOQ1 5:2130Punt7–7
ATLQ1 5:0112Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 4:271057Touchdown14–7
NOQ2 14:531260Touchdown14–14
ATLQ2 9:551175Touchdown21–14
NOQ2 5:31729Punt21–14
ATLQ2 1:51969Touchdown28–14
NOQ2 0:28636Field goal28–17
ATLQ3 15:00675Touchdown35–17
NOQ3 12:03975Touchdown35–25
ATLQ3 7:381076Field goal38–25
NOQ3 2:58974Opp touchdown45–25
NOQ4 13:37775Touchdown45–32
ATLQ4 10:00614Punt45–32
NOQ4 7:011554Turnover on downs45–32
ATLQ4 2:51363End of half45–32

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan20/3024020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman1415210.90
Tevin Coleman12423.53
Matt Ryan5234.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devonta Freeman55551
Tevin Coleman33470
Taylor Gabriel23330
Mohamed Sanu34310
Jacob Tamme34280
Justin Hardy22261
Julio Jones17160
Aldrick Robinson1240

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees36/5437631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram15775.10
Tim Hightower3196.30
Drew Brees294.50
Brandin Cooks166.00
Tommylee Lewis111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Coby Fleener7111091
Brandon Coleman78780
Michael Thomas711711
Tommylee Lewis34430
Travaris Cadet66320
Mark Ingram46301
Brandin Cooks28130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.4%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.97