Closing spread
GB -6
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.127
- 45.4%Success rate45.9%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.243
- -0.187EPA / rush-0.138
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- +0.07CPOE+2.71
- 42.7%Third-down rate47.4%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 2.05Points / drive2.39
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 28/41 | 385 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Washington | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 10 | 9 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 6 | 8 | 205 | 2 |
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 7 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 6 | 22 | 1 |
| Cole Wick | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15/24 | 205 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 17 | 103 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 6 | 7 | 101 | 2 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Justin Perillo | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Trevor Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.78