2016 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

27·34

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

GB -6

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.127
  • 45.4%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.243
  • -0.187EPA / rush-0.138
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +0.07CPOE+2.71
  • 42.7%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 53.3%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.39
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
GBQ1 15:00875Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 11:221437Field goal3–7
GBQ1 2:45460Touchdown3–14
DETQ1 1:0130Punt3–14
GBQ1 0:3331Touchdown3–21
DETQ2 14:46549Turnover3–21
GBQ2 11:4037Field goal3–24
DETQ2 10:411150Missed field goal3–24
GBQ2 5:03972Touchdown3–31
DETQ2 1:10275Touchdown10–31
GBQ2 0:322-4End of half10–31
DETQ3 15:001277Touchdown17–31
GBQ3 8:23957Field goal17–34
DETQ3 3:141065Field goal20–34
GBQ4 12:32520Punt20–34
DETQ4 9:2553Punt20–34
GBQ4 6:3538Punt20–34
DETQ4 5:05662Touchdown27–34
GBQ4 3:34531End of half27–34

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford28/4138531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dwayne Washington10383.80
Matthew Stafford2115.50
Theo Riddick1090.90
Golden Tate1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones682052
Eric Ebron58690
Golden Tate46400
Theo Riddick79390
Anquan Boldin46221
Cole Wick11130
Andre Roberts0100
Dwayne Washington11-30

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers15/2420540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy171036.10
Aaron Rodgers5224.40
James Starks1-1-1.00
Ty Montgomery1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson671012
Randall Cobb13330
Davante Adams22231
Jared Cook13150
Justin Perillo11130
James Starks1290
Richard Rodgers2391
Eddie Lacy1220
Trevor Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.78