2016 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

33·48

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.048EPA / play+0.196
  • 40.9%Success rate49.5%
  • -0.038EPA / dropback+0.323
  • -0.062EPA / rush+0.001
  • 8.7%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -4.49CPOE+6.59
  • 36.5%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.93
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
CARQ1 15:00616Punt0–0
ATLQ1 11:33871Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 7:14729Punt0–7
ATLQ1 3:506108Touchdown0–14
CARQ1 0:17632Punt0–14
ATLQ2 12:1725Opp touchdown7–14
ATLQ2 11:31965Field goal7–17
CARQ2 5:56539Field goal10–17
ATLQ2 3:07411Punt10–17
CARQ2 1:41618Punt10–17
ATLQ2 0:0800End of half10–17
ATLQ3 15:0011109Touchdown10–24
CARQ3 9:1333Punt10–24
ATLQ3 8:16992Touchdown10–31
CARQ3 4:5734Punt10–31
ATLQ3 3:36936Field goal10–34
CARQ4 13:19563Touchdown18–34
ATLQ4 11:4231Punt18–34
CARQ4 9:2112100Touchdown26–34
ATLQ4 3:58175Touchdown26–41
CARQ4 3:451265Touchdown33–41
ATLQ4 1:5330Punt33–47
CARQ4 1:2510Opp touchdown33–48
CARQ4 1:1439Turnover33–48
ATLQ4 0:3700End of half33–48

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson17/2317222
Cam Newton14/2516510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton5306.00
Cameron Artis-Payne6122.00
Fozzy Whittaker362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Fozzy Whittaker99860
Greg Olsen613761
Devin Funchess23560
Corey Brown57481
Kelvin Benjamin37391
Ed Dickson22170
Ted Ginn25140
Joe Webb1130

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan28/3750341

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman13574.41
Tevin Coleman8192.40
Matt Ryan4143.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones12153001
Taylor Gabriel33490
Aldrick Robinson23481
Austin Hooper11421
Mohamed Sanu23220
Patrick DiMarco12180
Tevin Coleman34140
Devonta Freeman2370
Jacob Tamme2231
Levine Toilolo0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.3%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.97