Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.048EPA / play+0.196
- 40.9%Success rate49.5%
- -0.038EPA / dropback+0.323
- -0.062EPA / rush+0.001
- 8.7%Explosive rate11.2%
- -4.49CPOE+6.59
- 36.5%Third-down rate43.7%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.61Points / drive2.93
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 17/23 | 172 | 2 | 2 |
| Cam Newton | 14/25 | 165 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fozzy Whittaker | 9 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 13 | 76 | 1 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 5 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 3 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 28/37 | 503 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 12 | 15 | 300 | 1 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 2 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 42 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Levine Toilolo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.31
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.97