Closing spread
JAX -1
Total
48
Model margin
+1.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play-0.060
- 45.9%Success rate41.3%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.210
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.1%
- +1.05CPOE-4.51
- 42.8%Third-down rate34.7%
- 72.9%Red-zone TD rate71.4%
- 2.10Points / drive1.52
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 27/42 | 234 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 68 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Josh Ferguson | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 3 | 64 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 7 | 10 | 42 | 1 |
| Chester Rogers | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Josh Ferguson | 7 | 10 | 33 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 19/33 | 207 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 14 | 71 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 10 | 55 | 1 |
| Allen Hurns | 2 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Neal Sterling | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.13
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.61