2016 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

27·30

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

JAX -1

Total

48

Model margin

+1.6est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.045EPA / play-0.060
  • 45.9%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.210
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +1.05CPOE-4.51
  • 42.8%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 72.9%Red-zone TD rate71.4%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.52
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 32-17-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–JAX
INDQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:3036Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:5042Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 10:33634Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 8:231224Field goal3–7
JAXQ1 1:50413Punt3–7
INDQ1 0:031129Field goal6–7
JAXQ2 8:531256Touchdown6–14
INDQ2 4:09629Punt6–14
JAXQ2 1:061043Field goal6–17
JAXQ3 15:00843Field goal6–20
INDQ3 11:503-4Punt6–20
JAXQ3 9:391341Field goal6–23
INDQ3 2:511035Touchdown13–23
JAXQ4 14:48616Punt13–23
INDQ4 12:371354Touchdown20–23
JAXQ4 7:06475Touchdown20–30
INDQ4 5:03675Touchdown27–30
JAXQ4 3:0334Punt27–30
INDQ4 2:31631Turnover on downs27–30
JAXQ4 1:3630Punt27–30
INDQ4 0:2631Turnover on downs27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck27/4223421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore16684.31
Andrew Luck4235.80
Phillip Dorsett133.00
Robert Turbin122.00
Josh Ferguson3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Phillip Dorsett13641
T.Y. Hilton710421
Chester Rogers23390
Josh Ferguson710330
Frank Gore56270
Dwayne Allen24200
Jack Doyle1160
Robert Turbin2330

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles19/3320720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon14715.10
Blake Bortles7365.11
Chris Ivory8293.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson510551
Allen Hurns24471
T.J. Yeldon45460
Marqise Lee46280
Marcedes Lewis12120
Neal Sterling11100
Rashad Greene1180
Arrelious Benn1210
Chris Ivory0100
Bryan Walters0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.61