2016 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

17·14

Panthers

Carolina

QB Derek Anderson

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -6

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • -0.005EPA / play-0.048
  • 43.9%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback-0.038
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.062
  • 6.6%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +1.81CPOE-4.49
  • 44.2%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 62.7%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.61
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CAR
TBQ1 15:001458Field goal3–0
CARQ1 6:2839Punt3–0
TBQ1 4:39833Punt3–0
CARQ2 14:52846Punt3–0
TBQ2 10:2333Punt3–0
TBQ2 8:52525Missed field goal3–0
CARQ2 5:19324Turnover3–0
TBQ2 4:05841Field goal6–0
CARQ2 0:43569Missed field goal6–0
TBQ2 0:0100End of half6–0
CARQ3 15:001285Touchdown6–7
TBQ3 9:1233Punt6–7
CARQ3 7:48553Touchdown6–14
TBQ3 6:03475Touchdown14–14
CARQ3 4:2734Punt14–14
TBQ3 3:223-1Punt14–14
CARQ3 1:57531Turnover14–14
TBQ4 14:123-9Punt14–14
CARQ4 13:09786Turnover14–14
TBQ4 8:39937Missed field goal14–14
CARQ4 3:3337Punt14–14
TBQ4 1:491151Field goal17–14

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston18/3021910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers301013.40
Jameis Winston461.50
Peyton Barber362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans612891
Cameron Brate13380
Vincent Jackson35360
Jacquizz Rodgers56280
Brandon Myers11120
Adam Humphries12110
Alan Cross1150

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson18/2827802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cameron Artis-Payne18854.72
Fozzy Whittaker5459.00
Derek Anderson144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen9131810
Kelvin Benjamin59700
Corey Brown24130
Fozzy Whittaker1190
Ted Ginn1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.53
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.38