2016 · Week 5 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
CAR -6
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play-0.048
- 43.9%Success rate40.9%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.038
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.062
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- +1.81CPOE-4.49
- 44.2%Third-down rate36.5%
- 62.7%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.74Points / drive1.61
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 18/30 | 219 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 30 | 101 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 12 | 89 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Alan Cross | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 18/28 | 278 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 18 | 85 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 9 | 13 | 181 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 5 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.53
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.38