2016 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

38·41

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSaints
  • -0.048EPA / play+0.100
  • 40.9%Success rate48.2%
  • -0.038EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.012
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -4.49CPOE+4.38
  • 36.5%Third-down rate49.0%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.39
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NO
NOQ1 15:001359Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 8:55841Punt0–7
NOQ1 5:1538Punt0–7
CARQ1 4:1235Punt0–7
NOQ1 3:28393Touchdown0–14
CARQ1 2:313-9Punt0–14
NOQ1 0:35429Touchdown0–21
CARQ2 13:47960Turnover0–21
NOQ2 8:59849Missed field goal0–21
CARQ2 4:11533Field goal3–21
NOQ2 3:0236Punt3–21
CARQ2 2:24563Touchdown10–21
NOQ2 1:15560Field goal10–24
CARQ2 0:1000End of half10–24
CARQ3 15:00513Punt10–24
NOQ3 13:2234Punt10–24
CARQ3 11:461349Touchdown17–24
NOQ3 6:49575Touchdown17–31
CARQ3 4:56630Punt17–31
NOQ3 2:1242Punt17–31
CARQ3 0:53417Touchdown24–31
NOQ4 14:49322Turnover24–31
CARQ4 13:29950Touchdown30–31
NOQ4 9:38875Touchdown30–38
CARQ4 6:02745Touchdown38–38
NOQ4 2:581041Field goal38–41
CARQ4 0:11210Turnover38–41

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton27/4732221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart19854.52
Ted Ginn263.00
Cam Newton210.51
Fozzy Whittaker1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen67940
Kelvin Benjamin814860
Ted Ginn58540
Corey Brown24330
Devin Funchess26281
Ed Dickson34231
Fozzy Whittaker1240
Jonathan Stewart0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees34/4946541

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram16513.20
Daniel Lasco252.50
Travaris Cadet133.00
Coby Fleener122.01
Brandin Cooks122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks791731
Michael Thomas55781
Coby Fleener67741
Willie Snead47470
Travaris Cadet45270
Tommylee Lewis23240
Josh Hill25231
Mark Ingram2390
Brandon Coleman1260
Daniel Lasco1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.64
  • Expected margin+2.98