Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.048EPA / play+0.100
- 40.9%Success rate48.2%
- -0.038EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.012
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.6%
- -4.49CPOE+4.38
- 36.5%Third-down rate49.0%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.61Points / drive2.39
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 27/47 | 322 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 19 | 85 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 7 | 94 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 8 | 14 | 86 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 5 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 6 | 28 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 34/49 | 465 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 16 | 51 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Daniel Lasco | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 9 | 173 | 1 |
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 5 | 78 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 6 | 7 | 74 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Daniel Lasco | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+2.98