Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play-0.079
- 45.9%Success rate41.9%
- +0.127EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.154
- 8.4%Explosive rate6.9%
- +1.05CPOE-3.29
- 42.8%Third-down rate36.9%
- 72.9%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 2.10Points / drive1.45
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 21/32 | 252 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 22 | 106 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Rogers | 4 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 4 | 4 | 53 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Erik Swoope | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 25/39 | 269 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 24 | 149 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 6 | 7 | 85 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9 | 15 | 71 | 0 |
| Jaelen Strong | 1 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Braxton Miller | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.14
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.60