2016 · Week 6 · Division

Final / OT

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

23·26

Texans

Houston

QB Brock Osweiler

NRG Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • +0.045EPA / play-0.079
  • 45.9%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.154
  • 8.4%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +1.05CPOE-3.29
  • 42.8%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 72.9%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.45
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
HOUQ1 15:004-1Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:1435Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:4032Punt0–0
INDQ1 10:12832Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 5:5634Punt3–0
INDQ1 4:28975Touchdown10–0
HOUQ2 14:55633Punt10–0
INDQ2 12:07974Field goal13–0
HOUQ2 6:551066Field goal13–3
INDQ2 1:57436Turnover13–3
HOUQ2 0:32413End of half13–3
INDQ3 15:00410Punt13–3
HOUQ3 12:191180Touchdown13–9
INDQ3 7:061148Turnover on downs13–9
HOUQ3 0:4725Turnover13–9
INDQ3 0:18220Touchdown20–9
HOUQ4 14:53633Punt20–9
INDQ4 12:21966Field goal23–9
HOUQ4 7:041275Touchdown23–16
INDQ4 2:373-6Punt23–16
HOUQ4 1:50353Touchdown23–23
INDQ4 0:49420Punt23–23
HOUQ4 0:1500End of half23–23
INDOT512Punt23–23
HOUOT552Field goal23–26

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck21/3225211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore221064.80
Andrew Luck7537.61
Robert Turbin320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chester Rogers44630
Jack Doyle44531
T.Y. Hilton39490
Erik Swoope23420
Robert Turbin44220
Phillip Dorsett25120
Dwayne Allen1290
Frank Gore1120

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler25/3926921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller241496.21
Alfred Blue2136.50
Brock Osweiler2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
C.J. Fiedorowicz67851
DeAndre Hopkins915710
Jaelen Strong12360
Ryan Griffin35310
Lamar Miller34291
Braxton Miller24130
Tyler Ervin1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.60