2016 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

43·28

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

ATL -4.5

Total

49

Model margin

-0.7est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.196EPA / play-0.005
  • 49.5%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.323EPA / dropback+0.118
  • +0.001EPA / rush-0.208
  • 11.2%Explosive rate6.6%
  • +6.59CPOE+1.81
  • 43.7%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
  • 2.93Points / drive1.74
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TB
TBQ1 15:001375Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 9:28575Touchdown7–7
TBQ1 7:3923Turnover7–7
ATLQ1 7:0433Field goal10–7
TBQ1 6:081151Turnover10–7
ATLQ1 1:40741Field goal13–7
TBQ2 13:38624Punt13–7
ATLQ2 10:29415Turnover13–7
TBQ2 8:58324Touchdown13–14
ATLQ2 8:35964Touchdown20–14
TBQ2 3:5679Punt20–14
ATLQ2 1:46627End of half20–14
ATLQ3 15:001285Touchdown26–14
TBQ3 8:5438Punt26–14
ATLQ3 7:541084Touchdown33–14
TBQ3 3:021042Turnover on downs33–14
ATLQ4 14:39957Touchdown40–14
TBQ4 9:561285Touchdown40–20
ATLQ4 6:47512Field goal43–20
TBQ4 3:421175Touchdown43–28
ATLQ4 0:5900End of half43–28

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan25/3434440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman17774.50
Terron Ward8303.80
Taylor Gabriel22412.01
Stevan Ridley372.30
Matt Ryan200.00
Matt Schaub2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones8111111
Mohamed Sanu57740
Taylor Gabriel55520
Austin Hooper36461
Levine Toilolo11321
Devonta Freeman22280
Patrick DiMarco1111
Josh Perkins0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston23/3726130
Mike Glennon10/117510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber11312.80
Antone Smith5255.00
Jameis Winston3113.70
Mike James133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans11171502
Adam Humphries57461
Cameron Brate56431
Antone Smith34270
Peyton Barber45240
Cecil Shorts14200
Mike James33170
Freddie Martino1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.2%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.68