2016 · Week 9 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
ATL -4.5
Total
49
Model margin
-0.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.196EPA / play-0.005
- 49.5%Success rate43.9%
- +0.323EPA / dropback+0.118
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.208
- 11.2%Explosive rate6.6%
- +6.59CPOE+1.81
- 43.7%Third-down rate44.2%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
- 2.93Points / drive1.74
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 25/34 | 344 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 17 | 77 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 1 |
| Stevan Ridley | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 8 | 11 | 111 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 5 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 32 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh Perkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 23/37 | 261 | 3 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 10/11 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mike James | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 11 | 17 | 150 | 2 |
| Adam Humphries | 5 | 7 | 46 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 5 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Antone Smith | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike James | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Freddie Martino | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.42
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.68