2016 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Brock Osweiler

24·21

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

42

Model margin

+1.2est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.079EPA / play-0.060
  • 41.9%Success rate41.3%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.154EPA / rush-0.210
  • 6.9%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -3.29CPOE-4.51
  • 36.9%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate71.4%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.52
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00615Opp touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 11:571375Touchdown7–7
HOUQ1 5:141075Touchdown14–7
JAXQ1 0:19846Turnover14–7
HOUQ2 11:48618Missed field goal14–7
JAXQ2 9:00729Field goal14–10
HOUQ2 5:171046Missed field goal14–10
JAXQ2 1:06720Turnover on downs14–10
HOUQ2 0:2868Turnover on downs14–10
HOUQ3 15:0031Punt14–10
JAXQ3 13:53947Punt14–10
HOUQ3 9:13623Punt14–10
JAXQ3 6:013-12Punt20–10
HOUQ3 4:1217Touchdown21–10
JAXQ3 4:07935Field goal21–13
HOUQ4 14:561152Field goal24–13
JAXQ4 8:32621Punt24–13
HOUQ4 6:05425Punt24–13
JAXQ4 3:42951Touchdown24–21
HOUQ4 2:17618End of half24–21

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler14/279920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller15835.50
Akeem Hunt8526.50
Brock Osweiler3237.70
Alfred Blue7233.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins513480
C.J. Fiedorowicz35260
Braxton Miller12100
Ryan Griffin3471
Stephen Anderson1171
Akeem Hunt1210

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles32/4926521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon9323.60
Chris Ivory9313.40
Blake Bortles3113.70
Marqise Lee166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson9131071
Marqise Lee46500
Ben Koyack33350
T.J. Yeldon33270
Julius Thomas610241
Allen Hurns27130
Chris Ivory23100
Marcedes Lewis34-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.19