Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
42
Model margin
+1.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.060
- 41.9%Success rate41.3%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.210
- 6.9%Explosive rate7.1%
- -3.29CPOE-4.51
- 36.9%Third-down rate34.7%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate71.4%
- 1.45Points / drive1.52
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 14/27 | 99 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 15 | 83 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 13 | 48 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 32/49 | 265 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 9 | 13 | 107 | 1 |
| Marqise Lee | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 6 | 10 | 24 | 1 |
| Allen Hurns | 2 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.19