Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutDaniel LascoRBHamstring· DNP
- OutTerron ArmsteadTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableDelvin BreauxCBFibula· DNP
- QuestionableTravaris CadetRBToe· DNP
- LimitedDannell EllerbeLBQuadricep
- LimitedDavid OnyemataDEKnee
- LimitedStephone AnthonyLBHamstring
- LimitedThomas MorsteadPleft Ankle
Panthers
- OutA.J. KleinLBConcussion· DNP
- OutColin JonesSConcussion· Full
- OutMichael OherTConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableGino GradkowskiCKnee· DNP
- QuestionableRyan KalilCShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.048
- 48.2%Success rate40.9%
- +0.161EPA / dropback-0.038
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.062
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- +4.38CPOE-4.49
- 49.0%Third-down rate36.5%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 2.39Points / drive1.61
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 7 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 13:15 | 10 | 12 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 8:29 | 13 | 71 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| CAR | Q1 0:36 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NO | Q2 13:29 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CAR | Q2 11:29 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NO | Q2 9:31 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| CAR | Q2 9:17 | 8 | 22 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| NO | Q2 5:40 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CAR | Q2 4:12 | 4 | 19 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| NO | Q2 2:50 | 7 | 60 | Missed field goal | 3–19 |
| CAR | Q2 0:23 | 1 | 40 | Touchdown | 3–20 |
| NO | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–20 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 51 | Field goal | 3–23 |
| NO | Q3 8:17 | 16 | 43 | Field goal | 6–23 |
| CAR | Q4 14:56 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–23 |
| NO | Q4 12:59 | 4 | 51 | Touchdown | 13–23 |
| CAR | Q4 11:22 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–23 |
| NO | Q4 10:44 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–23 |
| CAR | Q4 9:55 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–23 |
| NO | Q4 8:03 | 15 | 71 | Touchdown | 20–23 |
| CAR | Q4 2:52 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 20–23 |
| NO | Q4 0:14 | 3 | 43 | End of half | 20–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 35/44 | 285 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 8 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 3 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| Brandon Coleman | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Marcus Murphy | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 14/33 | 192 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 18 | 31 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 3 | 4 | 46 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.14