2016 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

22·17

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 47°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NE -9

Total

48

Model margin

-2.6est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJets
  • +0.128EPA / play-0.069
  • 44.3%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.276EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.070
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +2.98CPOE-4.70
  • 47.3%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 2.47Points / drive1.40
  • 0.7%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYJ
NEQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:43741Field goal0–3
NEQ1 10:29413Punt0–3
NYJQ1 8:4839Punt0–3
NEQ1 6:54513Punt0–3
NYJQ1 4:42979Touchdown0–10
NEQ2 14:561034Field goal3–10
NYJQ2 10:45226Turnover3–10
NEQ2 9:46750Touchdown10–10
NYJQ2 6:29838Missed field goal10–10
NEQ2 1:58533Missed field goal10–10
NYJQ2 0:0200End of half10–10
NYJQ3 15:00412Punt10–10
NEQ3 12:551153Field goal13–10
NYJQ3 7:34922Punt13–10
NEQ3 2:2459Punt13–10
NYJQ4 14:49873Touchdown13–17
NEQ4 10:17753Field goal16–17
NYJQ4 7:02429Punt16–17
NEQ4 5:04983Touchdown22–17
NYJQ4 1:5625Turnover22–17
NEQ4 1:43331End of half22–17

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady30/5028620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount11676.10
Dion Lewis6244.00
Martellus Bennett144.00
Tom Brady3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman811830
Chris Hogan45700
Malcolm Mitchell57422
Dion Lewis47340
Martellus Bennett35220
James White49220
Danny Amendola1180
LeGarrette Blount0100
Rob Gronkowski0200

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick22/3226920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell8364.50
Matt Forte13272.10
Ryan Fitzpatrick210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quincy Enunwa551091
Brandon Marshall69671
Robbie Chosen22340
Matt Forte34230
Brandon Bostick22140
Austin Seferian-Jenkins1290
Bilal Powell1370
Jalin Marshall2360
C.J. Spiller0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -92.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.0%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-2.64