Closing spread
NE -9
Total
48
Model margin
-2.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.128EPA / play-0.069
- 44.3%Success rate40.5%
- +0.276EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.070
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.98CPOE-4.70
- 47.3%Third-down rate36.5%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 2.47Points / drive1.40
- 0.7%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/50 | 286 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 11 | 67 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 8 | 11 | 83 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 4 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 5 | 7 | 42 | 2 |
| Dion Lewis | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 9 | 22 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 22/32 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 13 | 27 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Enunwa | 5 | 5 | 109 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 9 | 67 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Brandon Bostick | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Jalin Marshall | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.94
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-2.64