Closing spread
IND -6.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.045
- 41.9%Success rate45.9%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.117
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.4%
- -3.29CPOE+1.05
- 36.9%Third-down rate42.8%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 1.45Points / drive2.10
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 14/24 | 147 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 21 | 107 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Keith Mumphery | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 24/45 | 276 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 9 | 13 | 115 | 1 |
| Jack Doyle | 5 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.80