2016 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Brock Osweiler

22·17

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -6.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapColts
  • -0.079EPA / play+0.045
  • 41.9%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.154EPA / rush-0.117
  • 6.9%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -3.29CPOE+1.05
  • 36.9%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
  • 1.45Points / drive2.10
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–IND
HOUQ1 15:00521Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:21974Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 8:3139Punt0–3
INDQ1 6:1110Turnover0–3
HOUQ1 6:01513Field goal3–3
INDQ1 4:00523Punt3–3
HOUQ1 1:00933Turnover3–3
INDQ2 11:36412Punt3–3
HOUQ2 9:451280Touchdown10–3
INDQ2 2:261038Missed field goal10–3
HOUQ2 0:46322Field goal13–3
INDQ2 0:1200End of half13–3
INDQ3 15:0038Turnover13–3
HOUQ3 13:5444Field goal16–3
INDQ3 12:46739Touchdown16–10
HOUQ3 9:5339Punt16–10
INDQ3 7:281154Turnover16–10
HOUQ3 2:291259Field goal19–10
INDQ4 11:53968Touchdown19–17
HOUQ4 9:061368Field goal22–17
INDQ4 2:47633Turnover on downs22–17
HOUQ4 1:2000End of half22–17

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler14/2414701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller211075.11
Alfred Blue16553.40
Akeem Hunt11919.00
Jonathan Grimes166.00
Brock Osweiler2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins24330
C.J. Fiedorowicz37320
Ryan Griffin22230
Will Fuller24220
Keith Mumphery22160
Lamar Miller11150
Jonathan Grimes1260
Alfred Blue1100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck24/4527622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore10414.10
Andrew Luck23216.00
Robert Turbin3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton9131151
Jack Doyle56550
Frank Gore22331
Robert Turbin47330
Chester Rogers12210
Phillip Dorsett38190
Dwayne Allen0200
Donte Moncrief0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.66%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.80