2016 · Week 14 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -2
Total
52
Model margin
+2.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.005
- 48.2%Success rate43.9%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.208
- 9.6%Explosive rate6.6%
- +4.38CPOE+1.81
- 49.0%Third-down rate44.2%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
- 2.39Points / drive1.74
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 25/41 | 257 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Snead | 6 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 5 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 16/26 | 184 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 23 | 66 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Charles Sims | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Brate | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Freddie Martino | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.03