2016 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

11·16

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TB -2

Total

52

Model margin

+2.0est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.100EPA / play-0.005
  • 48.2%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.012EPA / rush-0.208
  • 9.6%Explosive rate6.6%
  • +4.38CPOE+1.81
  • 49.0%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.74
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–TB
TBQ1 15:00423Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:5736Punt0–0
TBQ1 11:05833Field goal0–3
NOQ1 8:0535Punt0–3
TBQ1 6:271361Touchdown0–10
NOQ2 14:50313Turnover0–10
TBQ2 13:11950Field goal0–13
NOQ2 8:26747Field goal3–13
TBQ2 5:291-1Safety5–13
NOQ2 5:201340Field goal8–13
NOQ3 15:00734Punt8–13
TBQ3 12:01614Punt8–13
NOQ3 9:041071Field goal11–13
TBQ3 3:351268Field goal11–16
NOQ4 12:46628Turnover11–16
TBQ4 10:0759Punt11–16
NOQ4 6:4438Punt11–16
TBQ4 5:41615Punt11–16
NOQ4 2:00642Turnover11–16
TBQ4 0:5100End of half11–16

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees25/4125703

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower6315.20
Mark Ingram7142.00
Drew Brees122.00
Travaris Cadet1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Willie Snead68850
Brandin Cooks510610
Brandon Coleman58470
Travaris Cadet45300
Mark Ingram1290
Tim Hightower1280
John Phillips1180
Coby Fleener1360

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston16/2618400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin23662.91
Charles Sims4174.30
Jameis Winston5163.20
Josh Huff155.00
Jacquizz Rodgers200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cameron Brate45470
Mike Evans48420
Charles Sims34330
Doug Martin22190
Russell Shepard13170
Josh Huff12170
Brandon Myers1190
Freddie Martino0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.03