2016 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

20·21

Texans

Houston

QB Brock Osweiler

NRG Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTexans
  • -0.060EPA / play-0.079
  • 41.3%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.210EPA / rush-0.154
  • 7.1%Explosive rate6.9%
  • -4.51CPOE-3.29
  • 34.7%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 71.4%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 1.52Points / drive1.45
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00520Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:4834Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:15616Punt0–0
JAXQ1 7:363-1Punt0–0
HOUQ1 5:3339Punt0–0
JAXQ1 4:121061Field goal3–0
HOUQ2 13:36216Turnover3–0
JAXQ2 12:5433Field goal6–0
HOUQ2 11:1637Turnover6–0
JAXQ2 10:0256Touchdown13–0
HOUQ2 8:321164Turnover on downs13–0
HOUQ2 2:4110Turnover on downs13–0
JAXQ2 2:3633Safety13–2
HOUQ2 1:35540Field goal13–5
JAXQ2 0:4929End of half13–5
JAXQ3 15:00620Punt13–5
HOUQ3 12:16862Field goal19–8
JAXQ3 7:0200Touchdown20–8
HOUQ3 6:5036Punt20–8
JAXQ3 5:07422Punt20–8
HOUQ3 3:26845Field goal20–11
JAXQ3 0:1138Punt20–11
HOUQ4 13:591468Field goal20–14
JAXQ4 7:5440Punt20–14
HOUQ4 5:471036Touchdown20–21
JAXQ4 2:51615Turnover on downs20–21
HOUQ4 1:4831Punt20–21
JAXQ4 1:1010Turnover20–21
HOUQ4 1:0100End of half20–21

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles12/289201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory10444.40
T.J. Yeldon8283.50
Blake Bortles2-5-2.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Yeldon57340
Bryan Walters25260
Allen Robinson28150
Neal Sterling11140
Ben Koyack1220
Alex Ellis1110
Chris Ivory0100
Marqise Lee0300

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Savage23/3626000
Brock Osweiler6/114802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller22632.91
Akeem Hunt3155.00
Jonathan Grimes133.00
Alfred Blue111.00
Tom Savage300.00
Will Fuller1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins817870
Ryan Griffin88850
Will Fuller48420
Wendall Williams23340
Lamar Miller22260
Jonathan Grimes23120
Keith Mumphery12110
Stephen Anderson1370
Alfred Blue1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.73