Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play-0.079
- 41.3%Success rate41.9%
- +0.014EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.210EPA / rush-0.154
- 7.1%Explosive rate6.9%
- -4.51CPOE-3.29
- 34.7%Third-down rate36.9%
- 71.4%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.52Points / drive1.45
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 12/28 | 92 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 5 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 8 | 15 | 0 |
| Neal Sterling | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Alex Ellis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Savage | 23/36 | 260 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 6/11 | 48 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 22 | 63 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Akeem Hunt | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Savage | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8 | 17 | 87 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 8 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Wendall Williams | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Keith Mumphery | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.73