Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
-1.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.196EPA / play-0.048
- 49.5%Success rate40.9%
- +0.323EPA / dropback-0.038
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.062
- 11.2%Explosive rate8.7%
- +6.59CPOE-4.49
- 43.7%Third-down rate36.5%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 2.93Points / drive1.61
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 27/33 | 277 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 9 | 90 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 4 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 8 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Josh Perkins | 2 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 18/43 | 198 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 4 | 8 | 63 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 12 | 59 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 3 | 9 | 29 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.31
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.65