2016 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

33·16

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

-1.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.196EPA / play-0.048
  • 49.5%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.323EPA / dropback-0.038
  • +0.001EPA / rush-0.062
  • 11.2%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +6.59CPOE-4.49
  • 43.7%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 2.93Points / drive1.61
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
ATLQ1 15:00875Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 10:57511Turnover7–0
ATLQ1 8:27427Field goal10–0
CARQ1 6:0939Punt10–0
ATLQ1 4:38739Field goal13–0
CARQ1 0:35520Punt13–0
ATLQ2 13:5933Punt13–0
CARQ2 11:49536Field goal13–3
ATLQ2 10:171180Touchdown20–3
CARQ2 5:34830Punt20–3
ATLQ2 2:213-7Punt20–3
CARQ2 1:4010Turnover20–3
ATLQ2 1:3139Missed field goal20–3
CARQ2 0:1300End of half20–3
CARQ3 15:001248Field goal20–6
ATLQ3 9:23960Field goal23–6
CARQ3 3:34961Touchdown23–13
ATLQ4 15:00480Touchdown30–13
CARQ4 13:191062Field goal30–16
ATLQ4 9:43839Punt30–16
CARQ4 5:29722Turnover on downs30–16
ATLQ4 3:4033Field goal33–16
CARQ4 1:5534End of half33–16

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan27/3327720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman99010.01
Devonta Freeman13534.10
Matt Ryan294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones47600
Mohamed Sanu34560
Tevin Coleman33450
Devonta Freeman88350
Josh Perkins23341
Aldrick Robinson11150
Taylor Gabriel34150
Levine Toilolo11100
Patrick DiMarco1160

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton18/4319812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart11504.50
Cam Newton8364.50
Fozzy Whittaker33010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin48631
Greg Olsen612590
Ted Ginn39290
Fozzy Whittaker11140
Corey Brown12120
Chris Manhertz11100
Devin Funchess1590
Jonathan Stewart1220
Ed Dickson0100
Joe Webb0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.6%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-1.65