2016 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Bryce Petty

3·41

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 40°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NE -17

Total

45

Model margin

+7.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.069EPA / play+0.128
  • 40.5%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.276
  • -0.070EPA / rush-0.077
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -4.70CPOE+2.98
  • 36.5%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.40Points / drive2.47
  • 3.2%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NE
NYJQ1 15:003-5Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:47842Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 8:163-1Turnover0–3
NEQ1 7:19847Touchdown0–10
NYJQ1 3:02521Punt0–10
NEQ1 0:2036Punt0–10
NYJQ2 14:011-4Turnover0–10
NEQ2 13:55724Field goal0–13
NYJQ2 11:13963Missed field goal0–13
NEQ2 5:5635Punt0–13
NYJQ2 4:5310Turnover0–13
NEQ2 4:47454Touchdown0–20
NYJQ2 2:40612Punt0–20
NEQ2 1:30540Touchdown0–27
NYJQ2 0:2513End of half0–27
NEQ3 15:00725Punt0–27
NYJQ3 12:0034Punt0–27
NEQ3 11:021457Touchdown0–34
NYJQ3 3:22538Turnover0–34
NEQ3 0:27918Touchdown0–41
NYJQ4 12:241264Field goal3–41
NEQ4 6:1639Punt3–41
NYJQ4 4:10744Turnover on downs3–41
NEQ4 1:5000End of half3–41

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick8/2113602
Bryce Petty0/3001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell15604.00
Khiry Robinson8222.80
Brandon Wilds4143.50
Quincy Enunwa11212.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quincy Enunwa15300
Brandon Marshall24280
Charone Peake13270
Devin Smith13200
Austin Seferian-Jenkins12170
Bilal Powell23140
Brandon Bostick0100
Robbie Chosen0300

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady17/2721430
Jimmy Garoppolo1/2600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis16523.30
LeGarrette Blount20502.52
James White11414.00
Jimmy Garoppolo3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman58890
James White34321
Malcolm Mitchell35290
Chris Hogan15220
Martellus Bennett22191
Matt Lengel11181
Michael Floyd1260
Dion Lewis1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +177.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.65%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.7%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.92
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+7.52