Closing spread
NE -17
Total
45
Model margin
+7.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play+0.128
- 40.5%Success rate44.3%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.276
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.077
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.6%
- -4.70CPOE+2.98
- 36.5%Third-down rate47.3%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.40Points / drive2.47
- 3.2%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 8/21 | 136 | 0 | 2 |
| Bryce Petty | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Wilds | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Enunwa | 1 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Charone Peake | 1 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Devin Smith | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Brandon Bostick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 17/27 | 214 | 3 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1/2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 20 | 50 | 2.5 | 2 |
| James White | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 5 | 8 | 89 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Matt Lengel | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.94
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.92
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+7.52