2016 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

24·31

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

53

Model margin

+1.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSaints
  • -0.005EPA / play+0.100
  • 43.9%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.012
  • 6.6%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.81CPOE+4.38
  • 44.2%Third-down rate49.0%
  • 62.7%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.74Points / drive2.39
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NO
NOQ1 15:00725Punt0–0
TBQ1 11:21730Punt0–0
NOQ1 7:291374Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 0:57527Punt0–7
NOQ2 12:5331Punt0–7
TBQ2 12:03525Touchdown7–7
NOQ2 10:50951Field goal7–10
TBQ2 6:45515Punt7–10
NOQ2 3:38957Field goal7–13
TBQ3 15:002-1Turnover7–19
NOQ3 14:06114Touchdown7–20
TBQ3 14:011165Touchdown14–20
NOQ3 8:38675Touchdown14–28
TBQ3 6:20990Touchdown21–28
NOQ3 1:521182Field goal21–31
TBQ4 11:55847Turnover21–31
NOQ4 8:05522Punt21–31
TBQ4 4:33951Field goal24–31
NOQ4 2:00319End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston23/3527722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers15634.21
Jameis Winston3144.70
Charles Sims3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans78971
Russell Shepard35610
Charles Sims44300
Josh Huff23240
Brandon Myers26210
Jacquizz Rodgers22150
Cameron Brate12121
Adam Humphries12120
Alan Cross1150
Luke Stocker0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees23/3429910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram18905.02
Tim Hightower8293.60
Drew Brees410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks59980
Michael Thomas68980
Coby Fleener23300
Willie Snead25210
Travaris Cadet22161
John Phillips22150
Tim Hightower11110
Mark Ingram2330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.29
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.45