2016 · Week 16 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
NO -3
Total
53
Model margin
+1.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play+0.100
- 43.9%Success rate48.2%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.012
- 6.6%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.81CPOE+4.38
- 44.2%Third-down rate49.0%
- 62.7%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.74Points / drive2.39
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 23/35 | 277 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 15 | 63 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 7 | 8 | 97 | 1 |
| Russell Shepard | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Alan Cross | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 23/34 | 299 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 18 | 90 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Tim Hightower | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 9 | 98 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 6 | 8 | 98 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 2 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| John Phillips | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.29
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.45