2016 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

16·17

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TB -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.048EPA / play-0.005
  • 40.9%Success rate43.9%
  • -0.038EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.208
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.6%
  • -4.49CPOE+1.81
  • 36.5%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.74
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
TBQ1 15:00960Field goal0–3
CARQ1 11:02675Touchdown7–3
TBQ1 8:22532Punt7–3
CARQ1 6:39619Punt7–3
TBQ1 2:5810Turnover7–3
CARQ1 2:534-1Missed field goal7–3
TBQ1 0:09534Turnover7–3
CARQ2 13:143-6Punt7–3
TBQ2 11:4431Punt7–3
CARQ2 10:41717Turnover7–3
TBQ2 7:361351Missed field goal7–3
CARQ2 0:40524Missed field goal7–3
CARQ3 15:0023Opp touchdown7–10
CARQ3 14:19415Punt7–10
TBQ3 12:14621Punt7–10
CARQ3 9:45650Field goal10–10
TBQ3 6:37515Punt10–10
CARQ3 4:383-11Punt10–10
TBQ3 3:053-3Punt10–10
CARQ3 1:51433Turnover10–10
TBQ4 15:00416Missed field goal10–10
CARQ4 11:55943Missed field goal10–10
TBQ4 6:05874Touchdown10–17
CARQ4 3:131074Touchdown16–17
TBQ4 0:1700End of half16–17

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton18/3223713

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart20653.31
Ted Ginn22412.00
Fozzy Whittaker492.30
Cam Newton362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin67931
Ted Ginn47690
Greg Olsen34220
Corey Brown23200
Damiere Byrd11160
Brenton Bersin15100
Jonathan Stewart1270
Ed Dickson0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston20/3520211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers17754.40
Peyton Barber5193.80
Jameis Winston3186.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Humphries1013940
Mike Evans511651
Russell Shepard27290
Freddie Martino1190
Jacquizz Rodgers1140
Luke Stocker1110
Alan Cross0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.63