2016 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.048EPA / play-0.005
- 40.9%Success rate43.9%
- -0.038EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.208
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.6%
- -4.49CPOE+1.81
- 36.5%Third-down rate44.2%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
- 1.61Points / drive1.74
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 18/32 | 237 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 20 | 65 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 6 | 7 | 93 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 20/35 | 202 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 17 | 75 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Humphries | 10 | 13 | 94 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 11 | 65 | 1 |
| Russell Shepard | 2 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Freddie Martino | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Alan Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.63