2016 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

31·24

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

50

Model margin

-0.5est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.127EPA / play+0.054
  • 45.9%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.243EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.187
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +2.71CPOE+0.07
  • 47.4%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
  • 2.39Points / drive2.05
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
DETQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
GBQ1 14:10619Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:24419Punt0–0
GBQ1 8:18523Punt0–0
DETQ1 6:191279Missed field goal0–0
GBQ2 14:56971Touchdown7–0
DETQ2 10:471275Touchdown7–7
GBQ2 5:00526Punt7–7
DETQ2 2:311169Touchdown7–14
GBQ2 0:23445Field goal10–14
GBQ3 15:001080Touchdown17–14
DETQ3 9:2356Punt17–14
GBQ3 6:34832Punt17–14
DETQ3 1:38526Punt17–14
GBQ4 14:391091Touchdown23–14
DETQ4 10:02633Field goal23–17
GBQ4 7:421365Touchdown31–17
DETQ4 2:50760Turnover31–17
GBQ4 1:3010Punt31–23
DETQ4 0:22135Touchdown31–24
GBQ4 0:1300End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/3930040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Montgomery8445.50
Aaron Rodgers10424.20
Christine Michael362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Geronimo Allison46911
Jordy Nelson66660
Jared Cook48560
Davante Adams69312
Ty Montgomery35170
Richard Rodgers11140
Christine Michael12100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford26/4134721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Zenner20693.51
Golden Tate177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate610771
Marvin Jones59760
Eric Ebron66610
Anquan Boldin46571
Zach Zenner45410
T.J. Jones14350
Andre Roberts0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.8%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin-0.46