Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
50
Model margin
-0.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.127EPA / play+0.054
- 45.9%Success rate45.4%
- +0.243EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.187
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- +2.71CPOE+0.07
- 47.4%Third-down rate42.7%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 2.39Points / drive2.05
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/39 | 300 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Montgomery | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geronimo Allison | 4 | 6 | 91 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 6 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 6 | 9 | 31 | 2 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/41 | 347 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Zenner | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 6 | 10 | 77 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 6 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| Zach Zenner | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 1 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.04
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin-0.46