2016 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

20·24

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -5.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • -0.060EPA / play+0.045
  • 41.3%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.210EPA / rush-0.117
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -4.51CPOE+1.05
  • 34.7%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 71.4%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
  • 1.52Points / drive2.10
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. IND are 17-32-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
INDQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:35767Field goal3–0
INDQ1 10:0535Punt3–0
JAXQ1 9:06775Touchdown10–0
INDQ1 5:5732Punt10–0
JAXQ1 4:22524Punt10–0
INDQ1 2:0537Punt10–0
JAXQ1 0:33628Punt10–0
INDQ2 12:03749Turnover10–0
JAXQ2 8:5234Turnover10–0
INDQ2 8:053-8Missed field goal10–0
JAXQ2 6:33262Touchdown17–0
INDQ2 5:45748Field goal17–3
JAXQ2 2:411060Missed field goal17–3
INDQ2 0:191-6End of half17–3
JAXQ3 15:00620Punt17–3
INDQ3 12:51583Touchdown17–10
JAXQ3 10:16521Punt17–10
INDQ3 6:551593Touchdown17–17
JAXQ3 0:12942Turnover17–17
INDQ4 11:53947Turnover17–17
JAXQ4 7:19942Missed field goal17–17
INDQ4 3:254-14Punt17–17
JAXQ4 1:5437Field goal20–17
INDQ4 1:33670Touchdown20–24
JAXQ4 0:09118End of half20–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles25/3930110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Grant181226.81
Blake Bortles3217.00
Denard Robinson4174.30
Bronson Hill2115.50
Joe Banyard273.50
Bryan Walters144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marqise Lee69860
Bryan Walters89840
Allen Robinson512820
Ben Koyack34251
Corey Grant22150
Tony Washington1190
Denard Robinson0100
Bronson Hill0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck24/4032121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore16623.90
Andrew Luck3175.70
Robert Turbin3155.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton612950
Chester Rogers47720
Phillip Dorsett44560
Dwayne Allen33341
Erik Swoope11220
Robert Turbin24180
Frank Gore22140
Jack Doyle25101

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

3.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.87