Closing spread
IND -5.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play+0.045
- 41.3%Success rate45.9%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.210EPA / rush-0.117
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.4%
- -4.51CPOE+1.05
- 34.7%Third-down rate42.8%
- 71.4%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 1.52Points / drive2.10
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 25/39 | 301 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Grant | 18 | 122 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Blake Bortles | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Bronson Hill | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Joe Banyard | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqise Lee | 6 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 8 | 9 | 84 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 12 | 82 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 3 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Corey Grant | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Tony Washington | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bronson Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 24/40 | 321 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 6 | 12 | 95 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 4 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 4 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Erik Swoope | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.87