Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
47
Model margin
-0.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.128EPA / play-0.004
- 44.3%Success rate42.2%
- +0.276EPA / dropback+0.062
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.092
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- +2.98CPOE+4.52
- 47.3%Third-down rate37.0%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 2.47Points / drive1.80
- 0.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/33 | 276 | 3 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 8 | 13 | 151 | 1 |
| Michael Floyd | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Chris Hogan | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt Lengel | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 24/34 | 205 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 9 | 12 | 76 | 1 |
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 7 | 41 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.68
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.77
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.16