2016 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

35·14

Dolphins

Miami

QB Matt Moore

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

NE -7.5

Total

47

Model margin

-0.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.128EPA / play-0.004
  • 44.3%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.276EPA / dropback+0.062
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.092
  • 8.6%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +2.98CPOE+4.52
  • 47.3%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 2.47Points / drive1.80
  • 0.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 29–25 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE
2022 · W1NE @ MIA7–20MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–MIA
NEQ1 15:001375Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 7:2832Punt7–0
NEQ1 5:43545Touchdown14–0
MIAQ1 3:4422Turnover14–0
NEQ1 2:54749Field goal17–0
MIAQ2 14:56626Punt17–0
NEQ2 11:401569Field goal20–0
MIAQ2 3:211075Touchdown20–7
NEQ2 0:28423Missed field goal20–7
MIAQ3 15:001380Touchdown20–14
NEQ3 8:39490Touchdown27–14
MIAQ3 6:4136Punt27–14
NEQ3 4:2338Punt27–14
MIAQ3 3:0335Punt27–14
NEQ3 1:32619Punt27–14
MIAQ4 13:571060Turnover27–14
NEQ4 8:35618Touchdown35–14
MIAQ4 5:33513Punt35–14
NEQ4 3:4330Punt35–14
MIAQ4 2:32411End of half35–14

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/3327630
Jimmy Garoppolo0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount14513.61
Dion Lewis11484.40
James White294.50
Tom Brady166.00
Julian Edelman166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman8131511
Michael Floyd34361
Martellus Bennett35331
Chris Hogan44270
James White44210
Dion Lewis2240
Matt Lengel1240

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore24/3420521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi16593.70
Kenyan Drake4102.50
Damien Williams252.50
Jakeem Grant111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry912761
DeVante Parker56450
Kenny Stills47411
Damien Williams35230
Jay Ajayi33200
Dion Sims0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.68
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.77
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.16