Closing spread
ATL -7.5
Total
58.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play+0.196
- 48.2%Success rate49.5%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.323
- -0.012EPA / rush+0.001
- 9.6%Explosive rate11.2%
- +4.38CPOE+6.59
- 49.0%Third-down rate43.7%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 2.39Points / drive2.93
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/50 | 350 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 20 | 103 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 10 | 14 | 156 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 3 | 4 | 82 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 3 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 3 | 5 | 18 | 1 |
| Brandon Coleman | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 27/36 | 331 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 12 | 96 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 7 | 9 | 96 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 5 | 81 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 4 | 7 | 43 | 1 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| Nick Williams | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.71
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.45