2016 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

32·38

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -7.5

Total

58.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.100EPA / play+0.196
  • 48.2%Success rate49.5%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.323
  • -0.012EPA / rush+0.001
  • 9.6%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +4.38CPOE+6.59
  • 49.0%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 2.39Points / drive2.93
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–ATL
NOQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
ATLQ1 14:06468Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 11:551479Field goal3–7
ATLQ1 3:53175Touchdown3–14
NOQ1 3:42763Touchdown10–14
ATLQ1 0:52529Touchdown10–21
NOQ2 14:1732Punt10–21
ATLQ2 12:321081Touchdown10–28
NOQ2 6:51653Field goal13–28
ATLQ2 3:40970Touchdown13–35
NOQ2 0:322-1End of half13–35
ATLQ3 15:0030Punt13–35
NOQ3 12:54420Punt13–35
ATLQ3 10:231395Field goal13–38
NOQ3 5:1733Punt13–38
ATLQ3 4:25830Punt13–38
NOQ4 14:52789Touchdown19–38
ATLQ4 12:41516Punt19–38
NOQ4 9:53859Turnover19–38
ATLQ4 6:5232Punt19–38
NOQ4 5:05550Touchdown25–38
ATLQ4 2:4700Touchdown25–38
NOQ4 2:461257Touchdown32–38
ATLQ4 0:3900End of half32–38

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees29/5035021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram201035.21
Tim Hightower3299.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas10141561
Willie Snead34820
Coby Fleener37380
Mark Ingram68290
Brandin Cooks36190
Travaris Cadet35181
Brandon Coleman1380
John Phillips0200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan27/3633140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman12968.01
Tevin Coleman8445.50
Matt Ryan221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones79961
Devonta Freeman55810
Justin Hardy47431
Aldrick Robinson22360
Mohamed Sanu44321
Levine Toilolo13180
Tevin Coleman34151
Nick Williams12100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.45