2017 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

29·7

Texans

Houston

QB Tom Savage

NRG Stadium · open · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -5.5

Total

38

Model margin

-2.9est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTexans
  • +0.020EPA / play-0.053
  • 41.7%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.095EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.126
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -2.97CPOE-2.95
  • 36.9%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 62.0%Red-zone TD rate63.3%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.47
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–HOU
JAXQ1 15:00756Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 12:083-6Punt3–0
JAXQ1 10:3435Punt3–0
HOUQ1 9:12929Punt3–0
JAXQ1 5:031178Field goal6–0
HOUQ2 14:494-2Punt6–0
JAXQ2 13:1643Punt6–0
HOUQ2 11:243-3Punt6–0
JAXQ2 10:1233Punt6–0
HOUQ2 8:37315Turnover6–0
JAXQ2 7:31933Touchdown12–0
HOUQ2 2:0276Opp touchdown19–0
HOUQ2 0:49213End of half19–0
HOUQ3 15:001766Touchdown19–7
JAXQ3 9:091155Touchdown26–7
HOUQ3 4:141226Turnover26–7
JAXQ3 0:03838Missed field goal26–7
HOUQ4 11:23513Punt26–7
JAXQ4 9:5934Punt26–7
HOUQ4 8:211043Turnover26–7
JAXQ4 3:3137Field goal29–7
HOUQ4 3:1143Turnover on downs29–7
JAXQ4 1:0800End of half29–7

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles11/2112510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette261003.81
Chris Ivory9424.70
Blake Bortles3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Hurns34420
Leonard Fournette33240
James O'Shaughnessy11180
Allen Robinson11170
Arrelious Benn11120
Chris Ivory12110
Marcedes Lewis0200
Marqise Lee0400
Keelan Cole0200

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson12/2310211
Tom Savage7/136200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller17653.80
Deshaun Watson2168.00
Tyler Ervin382.70
D'Onta Foreman144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins716551
C.J. Fiedorowicz44460
Lamar Miller22310
Tyler Ervin45180
Stephen Anderson25140
Ryan Griffin0100
Bruce Ellington0200
Braxton Miller0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.63%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.2%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.93