Closing spread
HOU -5.5
Total
38
Model margin
-2.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.020EPA / play-0.053
- 41.7%Success rate40.4%
- +0.095EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.126
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.9%
- -2.97CPOE-2.95
- 36.9%Third-down rate36.6%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate63.3%
- 1.81Points / drive1.47
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 11/21 | 125 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 26 | 100 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Hurns | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 12/23 | 102 | 1 | 1 |
| Tom Savage | 7/13 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 16 | 55 | 1 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.67
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.93