Closing spread
CAR -5.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutMarshon LattimoreCBConcussion· DNP
- OutSterling MooreCBChest· DNP
- OutTerron ArmsteadTShoulder· DNP
- OutZach StriefTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableTrey HendricksonDEKnee· Limited
Panthers
- OutJeremy CashLBCalf· DNP
- OutRyan KalilCNeck· DNP
- QuestionableCam NewtonQBright Shoulder· Limited
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.092EPA / play-0.018
- 45.3%Success rate41.3%
- +0.140EPA / dropback+0.040
- +0.026EPA / rush-0.096
- 12.4%Explosive rate8.9%
- +4.74CPOE-2.85
- 38.5%Third-down rate43.2%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 2.37Points / drive1.87
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 61 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 6:19 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| CAR | Q1 0:22 | 7 | 50 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| NO | Q2 10:46 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 7–6 |
| CAR | Q2 9:03 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| NO | Q2 7:50 | 4 | 24 | Touchdown | 14–6 |
| CAR | Q2 5:42 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–6 |
| NO | Q2 4:43 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 24–6 |
| CAR | Q3 11:09 | 8 | 40 | Punt | 24–6 |
| NO | Q3 7:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 24–6 |
| CAR | Q3 5:29 | 7 | 83 | Touchdown | 24–13 |
| NO | Q3 1:18 | 7 | 54 | Field goal | 27–13 |
| CAR | Q4 11:57 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 27–13 |
| NO | Q4 11:10 | 3 | 7 | Missed field goal | 27–13 |
| CAR | Q4 8:57 | 4 | 8 | Turnover | 27–13 |
| NO | Q4 6:58 | 4 | 35 | Touchdown | 34–13 |
| CAR | Q4 4:42 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 34–13 |
| NO | Q4 4:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 34–13 |
| CAR | Q4 1:47 | 6 | 29 | End of half | 34–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 22/29 | 220 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 7 | 8 | 87 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 17/26 | 167 | 0 | 3 |
| Derek Anderson | 2/7 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 9 | 11 | 101 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 4 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.34