Closing spread
NE -9
Total
48.5
Model margin
-3.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.137EPA / play-0.073
- 49.2%Success rate38.5%
- +0.254EPA / dropback-0.000
- -0.042EPA / rush-0.181
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.7%
- +3.49CPOE+0.98
- 40.8%Third-down rate36.0%
- 60.8%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 2.52Points / drive1.51
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/38 | 257 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Mike Gillislee | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 9 | 93 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 10 | 83 | 2 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 31/47 | 354 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| ArDarius Stewart | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 4 | 4 | 79 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 12 | 76 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 3 | 61 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 8 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 8 | 11 | 46 | 1 |
| Travaris Cadet | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| ArDarius Stewart | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.2%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-3.32