2017 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

24·17

Jets

New York

QB Josh McCown

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 73°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NE -9

Total

48.5

Model margin

-3.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJets
  • +0.137EPA / play-0.073
  • 49.2%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.254EPA / dropback-0.000
  • -0.042EPA / rush-0.181
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +3.49CPOE+0.98
  • 40.8%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 60.8%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 2.52Points / drive1.51
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001388Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 9:08834Punt0–7
NYJQ1 5:3137Punt0–7
NEQ1 3:55631Turnover0–7
NYJQ1 0:51778Touchdown0–14
NEQ2 12:1832Punt0–14
NYJQ2 11:1537Punt0–14
NEQ2 9:431069Touchdown7–14
NYJQ2 5:1938Punt7–14
NEQ2 3:1720Turnover7–14
NYJQ2 3:0232Punt7–14
NEQ2 1:38413Missed field goal7–14
NYJQ2 1:07624Turnover7–14
NEQ2 0:35663Touchdown14–14
NYJQ2 0:0900End of half14–14
NEQ3 15:00985Touchdown21–14
NYJQ3 11:221252Turnover21–14
NEQ3 4:411263Field goal24–14
NYJQ4 14:101264Turnover24–14
NEQ4 8:24413Punt24–14
NYJQ4 6:32555Field goal24–17
NEQ4 3:4033Punt24–17
NYJQ4 1:53724Turnover on downs24–17
NEQ4 0:1200End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady20/3825721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis11524.71
Mike Gillislee10444.40
James White3237.70
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks69930
Rob Gronkowski610832
Danny Amendola35400
James White47220
Chris Hogan14190
Phillip Dorsett0300

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown31/4735422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte9222.40
Elijah McGuire10222.20
Josh McCown3217.00
ArDarius Stewart166.00
Travaris Cadet133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Kearse44790
Robbie Chosen412760
Jeremy Kerley23611
Matt Forte88590
Austin Seferian-Jenkins811461
Travaris Cadet33260
ArDarius Stewart1220
Eric Tomlinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -92.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.2%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-3.32