2017 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

27·0

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

41

Model margin

-2.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • +0.020EPA / play-0.107
  • 41.7%Success rate38.7%
  • +0.095EPA / dropback-0.102
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.115
  • 7.8%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -2.97CPOE-4.56
  • 36.9%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 62.0%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.22
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. IND are 17-32-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
JAXQ1 15:001260Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 9:30519Punt7–0
JAXQ1 6:55465Touchdown14–0
INDQ1 5:01834Punt14–0
JAXQ2 14:131167Field goal17–0
INDQ2 7:3838Punt17–0
JAXQ2 5:47985Field goal20–0
INDQ2 1:56619Punt20–0
JAXQ2 1:11565Turnover20–0
INDQ2 0:192-8End of half20–0
INDQ3 15:0036Punt20–0
JAXQ3 14:03626Turnover20–0
INDQ3 11:1550Punt20–0
JAXQ3 8:40691Touchdown27–0
INDQ3 5:58969Turnover on downs27–0
JAXQ3 1:4338Punt27–0
INDQ4 14:533-13Punt27–0
JAXQ4 13:5039Punt27–0
INDQ4 11:401452Turnover on downs27–0
JAXQ4 6:23843Turnover on downs27–0
INDQ4 2:04946Turnover on downs27–0
JAXQ4 0:1600End of half27–0

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles18/2633010
Marqise Lee0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon912213.61
Chris Ivory17472.81
Blake Bortles4112.80
Corey Grant681.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Hurns581010
Marqise Lee46720
Keelan Cole23640
Marcedes Lewis23291
Corey Grant11280
T.J. Yeldon22150
Ben Koyack1170
Arrelious Benn0100
James O'Shaughnessy0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett22/3720000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore9343.80
Jacoby Brissett5316.20
Marlon Mack5265.20
Josh Ferguson155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jack Doyle67440
Marlon Mack46400
Donte Moncrief24300
T.Y. Hilton28270
Chester Rogers22210
Quan Bray22170
Kamar Aiken2380
Darrell Daniels1370
Brandon Williams1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-2.15