Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
41
Model margin
-2.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.020EPA / play-0.107
- 41.7%Success rate38.7%
- +0.095EPA / dropback-0.102
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.115
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.7%
- -2.97CPOE-4.56
- 36.9%Third-down rate38.0%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.81Points / drive1.22
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 18/26 | 330 | 1 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 9 | 122 | 13.6 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 17 | 47 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Blake Bortles | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Hurns | 5 | 8 | 101 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 4 | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 3 | 64 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 22/37 | 200 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Josh Ferguson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Doyle | 6 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Quan Bray | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-2.15