Closing spread
HOU -6
Total
45
Model margin
+0.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.053
- 38.7%Success rate40.4%
- -0.102EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.126
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- -4.56CPOE-2.95
- 38.0%Third-down rate36.6%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate63.3%
- 1.22Points / drive1.47
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 20/30 | 308 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 17 | 51 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 9 | 175 | 2 |
| Jack Doyle | 8 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Savage | 19/44 | 219 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 16 | 86 | 1 |
| Stephen Anderson | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 2 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 3 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.88