2017 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

20·14

Texans

Houston

QB Tom Savage

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -6

Total

45

Model margin

+0.9est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.053
  • 38.7%Success rate40.4%
  • -0.102EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.115EPA / rush-0.126
  • 6.7%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -4.56CPOE-2.95
  • 38.0%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate63.3%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.47
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00611Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:33792Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 8:3332Punt7–0
INDQ1 7:2831Punt7–0
HOUQ1 6:31514Punt7–0
INDQ1 3:5936Punt7–0
HOUQ1 3:041034Missed field goal7–0
INDQ2 13:03425Punt7–0
HOUQ2 10:5141Punt7–0
INDQ2 9:27946Field goal10–0
HOUQ2 4:34534Punt10–0
INDQ2 1:52714Opp touchdown10–7
INDQ2 0:562-7End of half10–7
INDQ3 15:00419Punt10–7
HOUQ3 12:16518Punt10–7
INDQ3 10:30417Punt10–7
HOUQ3 7:41512Punt10–7
INDQ3 5:417101Touchdown17–7
HOUQ3 1:56930Punt17–7
INDQ4 13:03834Field goal20–7
HOUQ4 9:12675Touchdown20–14
INDQ4 6:11724Punt20–14
HOUQ4 3:101357Turnover20–14

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett20/3030820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore17513.00
Marlon Mack9293.20
Jacoby Brissett2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton591752
Jack Doyle89630
Frank Gore34260
Brandon Williams22200
Chester Rogers12170
Donte Moncrief1270
Kamar Aiken0200

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Savage19/4421910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller10575.70
D'Onta Foreman11373.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins616861
Stephen Anderson46440
Lamar Miller34340
Will Fuller28320
Bruce Ellington38220
D'Onta Foreman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.88