2017 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Matt Moore

17·35

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 47°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

NE -17

Total

49

Model margin

+6.1est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.125EPA / play+0.137
  • 39.2%Success rate49.2%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.254
  • -0.198EPA / rush-0.042
  • 7.0%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -0.06CPOE+3.49
  • 31.0%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 1.31Points / drive2.52
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NE
NEQ1 15:00875Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 11:3938Punt0–7
NEQ1 10:12988Touchdown0–14
MIAQ1 5:331137Punt0–14
NEQ2 14:45324Opp touchdown7–14
NEQ2 13:191173Touchdown7–21
MIAQ2 8:29931Field goal10–21
NEQ2 4:06423Turnover10–21
MIAQ2 2:30850Turnover10–21
NEQ2 0:0700End of half10–21
MIAQ3 15:0039Punt10–21
NEQ3 13:14850Touchdown10–28
MIAQ3 10:28419Turnover10–28
NEQ3 8:29511Punt10–28
MIAQ3 5:053-10Punt10–28
NEQ3 3:09830Turnover on downs10–28
MIAQ4 14:55873Touchdown17–28
NEQ4 11:4330Punt17–28
MIAQ4 10:284-1Turnover on downs17–28
NEQ4 8:41538Touchdown17–35
MIAQ4 6:313-7Punt17–35
NEQ4 4:5839Punt17–35
MIAQ4 2:48412Turnover17–35
NEQ4 1:4300End of half17–35

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore23/3421512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Williams8384.80
Kenyan Drake9202.20
Matt Moore294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry89700
Julius Thomas56520
Kenny Stills36470
Kenyan Drake34271
Damien Williams35140
DeVante Parker1350

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady18/2822741

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis151127.50
Rex Burkhead13503.81
James White3134.30
Brandin Cooks11111.00
Tom Brady5-4-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks67831
Rob Gronkowski58822
Phillip Dorsett11390
Danny Amendola14150
Rex Burkhead2231
Dwayne Allen1220
James White1220
Dion Lewis1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +177.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.1%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.09