Closing spread
NE -17
Total
49
Model margin
+6.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play+0.137
- 39.2%Success rate49.2%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.254
- -0.198EPA / rush-0.042
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- -0.06CPOE+3.49
- 31.0%Third-down rate40.8%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 1.31Points / drive2.52
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 23/34 | 215 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Williams | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 8 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/28 | 227 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 15 | 112 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 1 |
| James White | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 7 | 83 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 8 | 82 | 2 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.09