2017 · Week 12 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -10.5
Total
47
Model margin
+4.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.047
- 44.2%Success rate45.0%
- +0.090EPA / dropback+0.185
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.152
- 6.5%Explosive rate9.7%
- +3.38CPOE+2.96
- 42.9%Third-down rate44.1%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.79Points / drive2.02
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 27/44 | 283 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 2 |
| Charles Sims | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 12 | 78 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 8 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/35 | 317 | 1 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1/1 | 51 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 19 | 97 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Terron Ward | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 12 | 15 | 253 | 2 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 8 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.21
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.19
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.06