2017 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

20·34

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -10.5

Total

47

Model margin

+4.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.047
  • 44.2%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.090EPA / dropback+0.185
  • -0.167EPA / rush-0.152
  • 6.5%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +3.38CPOE+2.96
  • 42.9%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.02
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. ATL are 21-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
TBQ1 15:00957Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 9:451253Field goal3–3
TBQ1 3:50411Punt3–3
ATLQ1 1:35422Punt3–3
TBQ2 15:0032Punt3–3
ATLQ2 13:59360Touchdown3–10
TBQ2 12:3646Punt3–10
ATLQ2 10:38672Touchdown3–17
TBQ2 7:261457Field goal6–17
ATLQ2 1:36659Field goal6–20
ATLQ3 15:00978Touchdown6–27
TBQ3 10:041170Touchdown13–27
ATLQ3 6:07726Punt13–27
TBQ3 2:26980Touchdown20–27
ATLQ4 13:47564Turnover20–27
TBQ4 11:11840Turnover on downs20–27
ATLQ4 7:051182Touchdown20–34
TBQ4 1:53950End of half20–34

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick27/4428300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin7334.70
Jacquizz Rodgers8313.90
Ryan Fitzpatrick22010.00
Peyton Barber571.42
Charles Sims133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans612780
DeSean Jackson811600
O.J. Howard34520
Adam Humphries46380
Charles Sims35260
Chris Godwin Jr.12170
Jacquizz Rodgers1260
Cameron Brate1260

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan26/3531710
Mohamed Sanu1/15110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman19975.12
Terron Ward7355.00
Julio Jones11515.00
Matt Ryan111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones12152532
Mohamed Sanu89640
Austin Hooper35380
Taylor Gabriel33160
Terron Ward11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.19
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.06