2017 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

21·31

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -5.5

Total

48

Model margin

+3.1est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSaints
  • -0.018EPA / play+0.092
  • 41.3%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.040EPA / dropback+0.140
  • -0.096EPA / rush+0.026
  • 8.9%Explosive rate12.4%
  • -2.85CPOE+4.74
  • 43.2%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.37
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NO
NOQ1 15:001168Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 10:151167Touchdown7–7
NOQ1 5:0936Punt7–7
CARQ1 3:4333Punt7–7
NOQ1 1:30316Punt7–7
CARQ1 0:08420Punt7–7
NOQ2 13:08384Touchdown7–14
CARQ2 11:3246Turnover on downs7–14
NOQ2 10:39619Touchdown7–21
CARQ2 7:2139Punt7–21
NOQ2 5:05325Turnover7–21
CARQ2 3:50445Touchdown14–21
NOQ2 1:56625Punt14–21
CARQ2 0:4624End of half14–21
CARQ3 15:003-5Punt14–21
NOQ3 13:14867Touchdown14–28
CARQ3 8:1068Punt14–28
NOQ3 5:37745Missed field goal14–28
CARQ3 1:181352Turnover on downs14–28
NOQ4 11:173-7Punt14–28
NOQ4 8:55534Field goal14–31
CARQ4 6:08570Touchdown21–31
NOQ4 3:57322End of half21–31

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton17/2718320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton6518.50
Jonathan Stewart11454.11
Christian McCaffrey6162.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Funchess47601
Christian McCaffrey56331
Russell Shepard35290
Ed Dickson22180
Brenton Bersin12180
Kaelin Clay11130
Damiere Byrd12120
Jonathan Stewart0100
Chris Manhertz0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees25/3426910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram14856.11
Alvin Kamara9606.72
Ted Ginn166.00
Drew Brees4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas59701
Alvin Kamara56660
Mark Ingram67370
Willie Snead22310
Brandon Coleman22280
Ted Ginn23270
Josh Hill1280
Tommylee Lewis1120
Michael Hoomanawanui1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.14