Closing spread
JAX -10
Total
41
Model margin
+5.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play+0.020
- 38.7%Success rate41.7%
- -0.102EPA / dropback+0.095
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.071
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.8%
- -4.56CPOE-2.97
- 38.0%Third-down rate36.9%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.22Points / drive1.81
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 21/36 | 174 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 6 | 46 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Donte Moncrief | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Josh Ferguson | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 26/35 | 309 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 20 | 57 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Blake Bortles | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqise Lee | 7 | 10 | 86 | 1 |
| Dede Westbrook | 6 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 3 | 49 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.55