2017 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

10·30

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

JAX -10

Total

41

Model margin

+5.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.107EPA / play+0.020
  • 38.7%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.102EPA / dropback+0.095
  • -0.115EPA / rush-0.071
  • 6.7%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -4.56CPOE-2.97
  • 38.0%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.81
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 32-17-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–JAX
INDQ1 15:00619Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:361185Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 6:186-3Punt0–7
JAXQ1 2:571167Field goal0–10
INDQ2 12:43954Field goal3–10
JAXQ2 7:021260Touchdown3–16
INDQ2 1:55947Turnover3–16
JAXQ2 0:3316End of half3–16
JAXQ3 15:00867Touchdown3–24
INDQ3 10:34975Touchdown10–24
JAXQ3 6:401081Field goal10–27
INDQ3 0:3447Punt10–27
JAXQ4 13:49416Punt10–27
INDQ4 12:03412Punt10–27
JAXQ4 9:48313Punt10–27
INDQ4 7:41516Turnover10–27
JAXQ4 6:03531Field goal10–30
INDQ4 2:531563End of half10–30

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett21/3617412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore13614.70
Marlon Mack6467.70
Jacoby Brissett6366.00
Chester Rogers1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton36511
Donte Moncrief58370
Chester Rogers46350
Jack Doyle35160
Josh Ferguson33160
Brandon Williams22110
Marlon Mack1280
Kamar Aiken0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles26/3530920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette20572.91
Blake Bortles3279.00
Chris Ivory4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marqise Lee710861
Dede Westbrook69780
Keelan Cole33491
Marcedes Lewis45460
James O'Shaughnessy11290
T.J. Yeldon22250
Leonard Fournette34220
Chris Ivory1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

3.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.8%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.55