2017 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

20·27

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Cutler

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NE -10

Total

48

Model margin

-2.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.137EPA / play-0.125
  • 49.2%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.254EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.042EPA / rush-0.198
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +3.49CPOE-0.06
  • 40.8%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 60.8%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 2.52Points / drive1.31
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–MIA
MIAQ1 15:001269Field goal0–3
NEQ1 9:0130Turnover0–3
MIAQ1 8:15734Field goal0–6
NEQ1 3:4932Punt0–6
MIAQ1 2:47720Punt0–6
NEQ2 14:53635Punt0–6
MIAQ2 11:1135Punt0–6
NEQ2 9:14636Touchdown7–6
MIAQ2 6:18790Touchdown7–13
NEQ2 3:33747Field goal10–13
MIAQ2 0:0200End of half10–13
NEQ3 15:003-6Turnover10–13
MIAQ3 13:24546Touchdown10–20
NEQ3 11:0334Punt10–20
MIAQ3 9:04961Touchdown10–27
NEQ3 4:4361Punt10–27
MIAQ3 3:2745Punt10–27
NEQ3 0:34653Touchdown17–27
MIAQ4 13:053-1Punt17–27
NEQ4 11:4930Punt17–27
MIAQ4 10:26517Punt17–27
NEQ4 7:5136Punt17–27
MIAQ4 7:0532Punt17–27
NEQ4 5:1749Punt17–27
MIAQ4 4:23516Punt17–27
NEQ4 2:24861Field goal20–27
MIAQ4 0:5300End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady24/4323312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis5173.40
Rex Burkhead581.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola69760
Dion Lewis55500
Rex Burkhead55450
Brandin Cooks17380
James White34111
Dwayne Allen25100
Chris Hogan1510

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler25/3826330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake251144.60
Jay Cutler441.00
MarQueis Gray122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenyan Drake56790
Jarvis Landry88462
Jakeem Grant24421
DeVante Parker46400
Kenny Stills24180
Anthony Fasano11170
Julius Thomas24110
MarQueis Gray11100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

3.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.5%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.83