Closing spread
NE -10
Total
48
Model margin
-2.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.137EPA / play-0.125
- 49.2%Success rate39.2%
- +0.254EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.042EPA / rush-0.198
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.0%
- +3.49CPOE-0.06
- 40.8%Third-down rate31.0%
- 60.8%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 2.52Points / drive1.31
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/43 | 233 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 6 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Dwayne Allen | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 25/38 | 263 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 25 | 114 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 5 | 6 | 79 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 8 | 8 | 46 | 2 |
| Jakeem Grant | 2 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.5%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.83