2017 · Week 15 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
ATL -7
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play+0.004
- 45.0%Success rate44.2%
- +0.185EPA / dropback+0.090
- -0.152EPA / rush-0.167
- 9.7%Explosive rate6.5%
- +2.96CPOE+3.38
- 44.1%Third-down rate42.9%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 2.02Points / drive1.79
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 17/31 | 212 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 22 | 126 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Terron Ward | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 3 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 27/35 | 299 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 5 | 8 | 79 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 5 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 1 | 30 | 1 |
| Alan Cross | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Antony Auclair | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Freddie Martino | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.29