2017 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

24·21

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

ATL -7

Total

49.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.047EPA / play+0.004
  • 45.0%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.185EPA / dropback+0.090
  • -0.152EPA / rush-0.167
  • 9.7%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +2.96CPOE+3.38
  • 44.1%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.79
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TB
ATLQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:2236Punt0–0
ATLQ1 11:531072Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 6:54960Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 1:52976Touchdown14–7
TBQ2 12:561282Turnover14–7
ATLQ2 6:30651Field goal17–7
TBQ2 3:1257Punt17–7
ATLQ2 1:43741Punt17–7
TBQ2 0:2524End of half17–7
TBQ3 15:00413Punt17–7
ATLQ3 12:2048Punt17–7
TBQ3 9:59353Touchdown17–14
ATLQ3 8:311561Missed field goal17–14
TBQ3 1:16633Punt17–14
ATLQ4 13:211087Touchdown24–14
TBQ4 7:581080Touchdown24–21
ATLQ4 4:0769Punt24–21
TBQ4 1:00335Missed field goal24–21

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan17/3121210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman221265.71
Terron Ward8405.00
Matt Ryan3299.70
Mohamed Sanu133.00
Taylor Gabriel133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devonta Freeman57680
Julio Jones38540
Justin Hardy24331
Mohamed Sanu25230
Taylor Gabriel22160
Austin Hooper22120
Terron Ward1160

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston27/3529930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber13534.10
Jameis Winston3186.00
DeSean Jackson177.00
Adam Humphries166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans58791
Cameron Brate45490
Adam Humphries55431
O.J. Howard11301
Alan Cross12230
Chris Godwin Jr.12180
Peyton Barber33150
Antony Auclair11140
DeSean Jackson11110
Freddie Martino11110
Charles Sims4460

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

4.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.29