Closing spread
JAX -10.5
Total
39
Model margin
+6.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.053EPA / play+0.020
- 40.4%Success rate41.7%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.095
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- -2.95CPOE-2.97
- 36.6%Third-down rate36.9%
- 63.3%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.47Points / drive1.81
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yates | 12/31 | 128 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 13 | 80 | 1 |
| Will Fuller | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAndrew White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 21/29 | 326 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Grant | 10 | 69 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 17 | 42 | 2.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelan Cole | 7 | 9 | 186 | 1 |
| Jaydon Mickens | 4 | 5 | 61 | 2 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.67
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.30
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.11