2017 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB T.J. Yates

7·45

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

JAX -10.5

Total

39

Model margin

+6.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.053EPA / play+0.020
  • 40.4%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback+0.095
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.071
  • 7.9%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -2.95CPOE-2.97
  • 36.6%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 63.3%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.81
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
HOUQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:3634Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:143-4Punt0–0
JAXQ1 10:441465Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 3:5242Punt0–7
JAXQ1 1:44654Touchdown0–14
HOUQ2 14:4538Punt0–14
JAXQ2 13:11648Touchdown0–21
HOUQ2 10:12741Punt0–21
JAXQ2 6:02543Punt0–21
HOUQ2 2:5632Punt0–21
JAXQ2 1:49725Field goal0–24
HOUQ2 0:5330Turnover0–24
JAXQ2 0:37250Touchdown0–31
HOUQ2 0:2615End of half0–31
JAXQ3 15:0034Punt0–31
HOUQ3 12:42886Touchdown7–31
JAXQ3 8:12374Touchdown7–38
HOUQ3 7:13712Punt7–38
JAXQ3 4:1736Punt7–38
HOUQ3 2:1936Punt7–38
JAXQ3 1:03415Punt7–38
HOUQ4 13:2935Punt7–38
JAXQ4 12:33445Touchdown7–45
HOUQ4 10:2668Punt7–45
JAXQ4 7:3639Punt7–45
HOUQ4 5:19311Punt7–45
JAXQ4 3:40524End of half7–45

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
T.J. Yates12/3112811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue12554.60
Lamar Miller9323.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins413801
Will Fuller55440
Lamar Miller2410
Cobi Hamilton0100
Alfred Blue0100
DeAndrew White0100
Stephen Anderson0300

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles21/2932630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Grant10696.91
Chris Ivory17422.50
T.J. Yeldon7273.90
Chad Henne2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keelan Cole791861
Jaydon Mickens45612
T.J. Yeldon45250
Dede Westbrook22210
Marcedes Lewis22180
James O'Shaughnessy12150
Ben Koyack1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.1%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.2%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.30
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.11