2017 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB T.J. Yates

13·22

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -5.5

Total

42

Model margin

+2.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapColts
  • -0.053EPA / play-0.107
  • 40.4%Success rate38.7%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback-0.102
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.115
  • 7.9%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -2.95CPOE-4.56
  • 36.6%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 63.3%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.22
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–IND
INDQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:41941Field goal3–0
INDQ1 8:151565Touchdown3–7
HOUQ2 14:551565Touchdown10–7
INDQ2 6:5530Punt10–7
HOUQ2 6:21953Field goal13–7
INDQ2 1:4432Punt13–7
HOUQ2 1:16321End of half13–7
HOUQ3 15:0031Punt13–7
INDQ3 13:301478Touchdown13–14
HOUQ3 6:5138Punt13–14
INDQ3 5:1938Punt13–14
HOUQ3 3:42617Punt13–14
INDQ3 0:02526Punt13–16
HOUQ4 12:121-8Safety13–16
INDQ4 12:07720Field goal13–19
HOUQ4 8:473-1Punt13–19
INDQ4 6:37948Field goal13–22
HOUQ4 0:31312Turnover13–22

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
T.J. Yates14/2413701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue18392.21
Lamar Miller8374.60
T.J. Yates199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Thompson33540
Alfred Blue45360
Will Fuller22170
Braxton Miller2490
Cobi Hamilton1580
Stephen Anderson1240
Andre Ellington0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett15/2511410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore241004.20
Marlon Mack7284.01
Jacoby Brissett5183.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chester Rogers24390
Jack Doyle45381
T.Y. Hilton36140
Frank Gore33110
Marlon Mack23100
Kamar Aiken1120
K.J. Brent0100
Darrell Daniels0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.30
  • Rest differential+0.16
  • Expected margin+2.46