Closing spread
IND -5.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.053EPA / play-0.107
- 40.4%Success rate38.7%
- -0.004EPA / dropback-0.102
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.115
- 7.9%Explosive rate6.7%
- -2.95CPOE-4.56
- 36.6%Third-down rate38.0%
- 63.3%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.47Points / drive1.22
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yates | 14/24 | 137 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 18 | 39 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 15/25 | 114 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 24 | 100 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Rogers | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 4 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| K.J. Brent | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.30
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+2.46