2017 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Bryce Petty

6·26

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 13°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

NE -17

Total

43.5

Model margin

+9.9est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.073EPA / play+0.137
  • 38.5%Success rate49.2%
  • -0.000EPA / dropback+0.254
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.042
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +0.98CPOE+3.49
  • 36.0%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 1.51Points / drive2.52
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NE
NEQ1 15:001375Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 9:30310Punt0–7
NEQ1 7:3978Punt0–7
NYJQ1 4:52652Field goal3–7
NEQ1 1:4248Punt3–7
NYJQ1 0:16749Missed field goal3–7
NEQ2 12:293-3Punt3–7
NYJQ2 10:54513Punt3–7
NEQ2 8:371229Touchdown3–14
NYJQ2 4:143-9Punt3–14
NEQ2 2:011048Touchdown3–21
NYJQ2 0:2000End of half3–21
NYJQ3 15:0037Punt3–21
NEQ3 12:5336Punt3–21
NYJQ3 11:2734Punt3–21
NEQ3 10:333-2Punt3–21
NYJQ3 9:2537Punt3–21
NEQ3 7:581177Field goal3–24
NYJQ3 1:2937Punt3–24
NEQ3 0:07648Punt3–24
NYJQ4 13:31764Field goal6–24
NEQ4 10:28726Punt6–24
NYJQ4 6:423-4Safety6–26
NEQ4 6:04610Punt6–26
NYJQ4 3:021248End of half6–26

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Petty19/3623200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell13463.50
Robbie Chosen111.00
Bryce Petty1-1-1.00
Elijah McGuire4-6-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Neal Sterling58740
Jermaine Kearse57590
ArDarius Stewart12460
Elijah McGuire36160
Chad Hansen14150
Bilal Powell12100
Eric Tomlinson22100
Robbie Chosen1320
JoJo Natson0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady18/3719020
Brian Hoyer1/3500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis26933.61
Brandon Bolden9465.10
Brandin Cooks382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks511791
Danny Amendola47430
Dion Lewis67401
Phillip Dorsett35260
Brandon Bolden1470
Kenny Britt0200
Dwayne Allen0100
Jacob Hollister0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +176.7%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%2.6%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

74.2%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.31
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+9.88