Closing spread
NE -17
Total
43.5
Model margin
+9.9est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.137
- 38.5%Success rate49.2%
- -0.000EPA / dropback+0.254
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.042
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.98CPOE+3.49
- 36.0%Third-down rate40.8%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 1.51Points / drive2.52
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Petty | 19/36 | 232 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Petty | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 4 | -6 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neal Sterling | 5 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| ArDarius Stewart | 1 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Chad Hansen | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| JoJo Natson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/37 | 190 | 2 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1/3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 26 | 93 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 11 | 79 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 6 | 7 | 40 | 1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
74.2%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+3.31
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.88